Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Release Dates, Results & History
Chicago Fed National Activity Index last printed -0.08 on Mon, Aug 24, 2026 against a -0.02 prior. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
The national activity index distills 85 already-published indicators into a single growth gauge where zero means the economy is running at trend. It creates no new information, but it is the cleanest one-number scorecard for the cycle debate, and the three-month average crossing -0.70 is the classic model-based recession signal. That threshold is what gets it quoted when the data starts rolling over.
The trend, at a glance
How it moves Treasuries
Almost never a Treasury mover on release since every input is already public. It matters as regime confirmation: a three-month average sliding toward -0.70 hardens the recession bid at the front end. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.08 | — | -0.02 | — | BELOW PRIOR | |
| -0.02 | — | -0.10 | — | ABOVE PRIOR |
The 2 most recent prints from the desk's live capture (began July 2026), a sample. Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed; the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE (INDEX) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | |
| 0.1 | -0.1 | +0.2 | |
| -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | |
| 0.1 | -0.1 | +0.2 | |
| -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | |
| 0.2 | -0.1 | +0.3 | |
| -0.1 | -0.1 | -0 | |
| -0.1 | -0.3 | +0.2 |
The most recent official rows; the chart above draws the longer series. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise the moment each number landed.
Monthly, ~three to four weeks after the reference month · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.