20-Year Bond auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $13B on offer, B/C 2.73 (avg 2.62), high 5.469%, tailed 0.9bp, indirect 58.2% (avg 65.2), direct 31.6% (avg 22.9), dealer 10.3% (avg 12.0).
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $75B on offer, B/C 2.76 (avg 2.84), high 4.155% (inv 4.271%), indirect 52.8% (avg 53.8), direct 8.3% (avg 7.9), dealer 38.9% (avg 38.2).
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.65M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual 0.65M, prev -0.45M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -2.95M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual -2.95M, prev 3.52M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: 1.68M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual 1.68M, prev -2.53M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.06M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual -3.06M, forecast -0.80M, prev -8.56M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.9% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.9%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-21.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-20: 3.88% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-20: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -5.3%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -5.3%, prev -2.7%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY): 3.9
Economic release
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.9, forecast 3.9, prev 3.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM): 0.1
Economic release
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.1, prev 0.6. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.8
Economic release
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a: Actual 0.8, forecast 0.7, prev 0.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a: 2.9
Economic release
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a: Actual 2.9, prev 2.7. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.2
Economic release
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a: Actual 0.2, prev 0.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.8
Economic release
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 2.8, forecast 2.7, prev 2.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.4
Economic release
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.4, forecast 0.3, prev 0.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5
Economic release
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.5, forecast 3.4, prev 3.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Merchandise Trade Balance Total: -536.6B
Economic release
Japan · Merchandise Trade Balance Total: Actual -536.6B, forecast -181.0B, prev -1,105.6B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -704.0B
Economic release
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: Actual -704.0B, forecast -0.26T, prev -840.6B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Imports (YoY): 18.9
Economic release
Japan · Imports (YoY): Actual 18.9, forecast 19.6, prev 28. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Exports (YoY): 16.7
Economic release
Japan · Exports (YoY): Actual 16.7, forecast 20.1, prev 19.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
The Next Major Oil Supply Shock Could Come From Saudi Arabia, 10s +6bp · Tue 20 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-19): 2s 4.77% (+3.0bp), 10s 5.15% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.48% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-19): VIX 18.44, 2s10s +38bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -4.93M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual -4.93M, forecast -1.30M, prev -11.10M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 2.88), high 3.975% (inv 4.049%), indirect 65.9% (avg 65.9), direct 5.5% (avg 4.1), dealer 28.5% (avg 30.0).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.5% (was 3.6%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.50%, revised from 3.64%.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 5.0% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 5.0%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-20.
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -11.3
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (YoY): Actual -11.3, prev -4.7. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -7.3
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (MoM): Actual -7.3, forecast -0.5, prev 0.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 9
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY): Actual 9, prev 10.4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.22M
Economic release
Housing Starts (MoM): Actual 1.22M, forecast 1.30M, prev 1.27M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Building Permits (MoM): 1.40M
Economic release
Building Permits (MoM): Actual 1.40M, forecast 1.39M, prev 1.40M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Housing Starts Change: -5.2
Economic release
Housing Starts Change: Actual -5.2, prev -2.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Building Permits Change: -0.2
Economic release
Building Permits Change: Actual -0.2, prev -2.1. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 18K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: Actual 18K, prev 25K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-19: 3.87% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-19: $0.3B (prior day $0.1B).
Eurozone · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 18.5
Economic release
Eurozone · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: Actual 18.5, forecast 24.2, prev 25.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 28.1
Economic release
Germany · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: Actual 28.1, forecast 32, prev 34.7. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · ZEW Survey – Current Situation: -35.9
Economic release
Germany · ZEW Survey – Current Situation: Actual -35.9, forecast -45, prev -47.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · Claimant Count Rate: 4.4
Economic release
UK · Claimant Count Rate: Actual 4.4, prev 4.4. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): 4.7
Economic release
UK · ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): Actual 4.7, forecast 4.9, prev 4.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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