Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-27): 2s 4.2% (+1.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.19% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-27): VIX 14.51, 2s10s +47bp. Narrative: Gold prices shed about 3% on ha…
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -68K, prev -11K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 123K, prev 122K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 243K, prev 222K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 447, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Chicago PMI — Actual 47.1, forecast 57.9, prev 57.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-28.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutra…
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 51.5, forecast 50.6, prev 50.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4, forecast 4.3, prev 4.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 51.7, forecast 51, prev 51. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
View which way each board member leans on the calendar widget > Fed Speak.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-27: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-27: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
Eurozone · Business Climate — Actual -0.23, prev -0.19. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator — Actual 98.4, forecast 97.5, prev 96.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -15.5, prev -15.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a. — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.4, prev 6.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Unemployment Change — Actual 4K, forecast 5K, prev 6K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.7, prev 1.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 1.9, prev 2. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Unemployment Rate — Actual 2.4, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio — Actual 1.18, forecast 1.19, prev 1.18. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-26): 2s 4.19% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.66% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.18% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-26): VIX 15.21, 2s10s +47bp. Narrative: US core PCE inflation expected…
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-26: $6,730,912M, vs $6,745,699M the prior week.
7-Year Note auction: IN LINE. $44B on offer, B/C 2.50 (avg 2.49), high 4.512%, on the screws, indirect 60.8% (avg 65.1), direct 27.0% (avg 23.1), dealer 12.3% (avg 11.8). IN LINE d…
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $90B on offer, B/C 2.77 (avg 2.76), high 3.670% (inv 3.742%), indirect 57.3% (avg 58.0), direct 3.4% (avg 4.6), dealer 39.3% (avg 37.4). IN …
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $100B on offer, B/C 2.73 (avg 2.74), high 3.650% (inv 3.711%), indirect 66.0% (avg 60.4), direct 2.5% (avg 4.9), dealer 31.5% (avg 34.7). IN…
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 17. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 15.0B, forecast 19.0B, prev 16.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-27.
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.80M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 1.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -118.8B, forecast -99.0B, prev -102.1B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 6.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 206K, prev 204K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 203K, forecast 208K, prev 206K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-26: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-26: $0.7B (prior day $0.4B).
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey — Actual -26.6, forecast -29.6, prev -29.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-25): 2s 4.17% (-7.0bp), 10s 4.64% (-6.0bp), 30s 5.17% (-6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-25): VIX 15.45, 2s10s +47bp. Narrative: US core PCE inflation expected…
5-Year Note auction: IN LINE. $70B on offer, B/C 2.37 (avg 2.32), high 4.393%, tailed 0.2bp, indirect 61.5% (avg 65.4), direct 28.4% (avg 21.2), dealer 10.0% (avg 13.4). IN LINE de…
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