What was the latest Trade Balance print?
Trade Balance last printed -105.6B on Tue, Oct 6, 2026 against a -102.0B consensus forecast and a -88.6B prior, a -0.86 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
Trade Balance: release dates, results and history
Trade Balance last printed -105.6B on Tue, Oct 6, 2026 against a -102.0B consensus forecast and a -88.6B prior, a -0.86 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
Net exports sit inside the GDP arithmetic, so a swing in the trade gap pulls quarterly growth trackers like GDPNow along with it, sometimes by full tenths. Tariffs put this release back in play. Importers rush shipments in ahead of a new duty and then hand the volume back the month after, which distorts the deficit and whipsaws the GDP estimates built on it. The advance goods report lands earlier, though, and often takes the reaction with it.
NEXT RELEASE
Released monthly, ~first week for the month two prior, usually around 8:30 AM ET. The desk posts the print the second it lands.
LATEST PRINT:
-105.6B
actual
-102.0B
forecast
-88.6B
prior
-0.86
std dev vs forecast
SLIGHT MISS
Surprise vs forecast
−0.86
std dev
SLIGHT MISS
-2-10+1+2
Printed below forecast. That gap is 0.86 times the size of a normal gap for this indicator.
The trend
OFFICIAL SERIES · LAST 36 OBSERVATIONS · $M
-37376M-85180M-132983M
2023-092026-08
The official published series at its current vintage, revisions included, so the newest point can differ from the number as first printed. The release-by-release history, with the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise on every row, comes through the Helious API.
How it moves Treasuries
There is no clean sign on this one. A wider deficit knocks the GDP trackers down, which is mildly bullish for Treasuries, but the same wider deficit can mean import demand is running strong, and that reads the other way. When bonds do move on it, they are moving on the revised tracker rather than on the print itself. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -105.6B | -102.0B | -88.6B | -0.86 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| -88.6B | -90.0B | -73.3B | +0.33 | ABOVE FORECAST | |
| -73.3B | -73.0B | -77.6B | -0.07 | ON THE SCREWS | |
| $-77.6B | $-78.0B | $-55.9B | +0.10 | ON THE SCREWS |
The 4 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE ($M) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$105.6B | -$92.8B | -$12.7B | |
| -$92.8B | -$71.2B | -$21.6B | |
| -$71.2B | -$75.8B | +$4.6B | |
| -$75.8B | -$52.9B | -$22.9B | |
| -$52.9B | -$53.7B | +$0.8B | |
| -$53.7B | -$52.5B | -$1.2B | |
| -$52.5B | -$52.7B | +$0.2B | |
| -$52.7B | -$76.1B | +$23.4B |
These are the most recent official rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment each number landed.
FAQ
When is the next Trade Balance release?
Trade Balance is released monthly, ~first week for the month two prior, usually around 8:30 AM ET. This page lists the next date as soon as it is scheduled.
Was the latest Trade Balance print a beat or a miss?
It printed below the consensus forecast: -105.6B against -102.0B, a -0.86 standard-deviation surprise. The standard deviation is measured against this indicator's own history of consensus misses, so the same gap means more on a series that rarely surprises.
Monthly, ~first week for the month two prior · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.