Trade Balance: Release Dates, Results & History
Trade Balance last printed -73.3B on Tue, Aug 4, 2026 against a -73.0B consensus forecast and a -77.6B prior, a -0.07 standard-deviation surprise. The next release is Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
Net exports feed directly into GDP arithmetic, so trade-gap swings move quarterly growth trackers like GDPNow, sometimes by full tenths. Tariff regimes have made this release live again: import front-running and payback distort the deficit and whipsaw GDP estimates. The advance goods version lands earlier and often steals the reaction.
The trend, at a glance
How it moves Treasuries
Direction is ambiguous for bonds: a wider deficit cuts GDP tracking (mildly bullish) but can also signal strong import demand. Reaction is usually via GDP-tracker revisions rather than the print itself. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -73.3B | -73.0B | -77.6B | -0.07 | ON THE SCREWS | |
| $-77.6B | $-78.0B | $-55.9B | +0.10 | ON THE SCREWS |
The 2 most recent prints from the desk's live capture (began July 2026), a sample. Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed; the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE ($M) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$73.3B | -$77.6B | +$4.4B | |
| -$77.6B | -$54.6B | -$23.1B | |
| -$54.6B | -$56.6B | +$2.0B | |
| -$56.6B | -$55.0B | -$1.6B | |
| -$55.0B | -$54.2B | -$0.8B | |
| -$54.2B | -$76.1B | +$21.9B | |
| -$76.1B | -$63.9B | -$12.2B | |
| -$63.9B | -$37.4B | -$26.5B |
The most recent official rows; the chart above draws the longer series. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise the moment each number landed.
Monthly, ~first week for the month two prior · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.