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The FED SPEAK Tab: Voters, Hawk/Dove Leans and How to Read a Speaker

Fed officials move bond markets with sentences, not data points, but not every official moves them equally. The FED SPEAK tab (inside the ECONOMIC CALENDAR panel, next to the CALENDAR tab) is a live FOMC roster built to answer the three questions that matter before anyone speaks: do they vote, which way do they lean, and has their tone shifted recently. It refreshes every 60 seconds.

The three sections

SPEAKING. UPCOMING lists the next scheduled appearances (soonest first, one slot per official), with today's slots highlighted in yellow. BOARD OF GOVERNORS lists the seven governors: the Chair, Vice Chairs and Governors, who always vote at every FOMC meeting. RESERVE BANK PRESIDENTS lists the twelve regional Fed presidents: New York always votes, and four of the remaining eleven rotate onto the committee each January. An asterisk after a name marks an interim president.

VOTER vs NON-VOTER: why the badge matters

Every official carries a purple VOTER or grey NON-VOTER badge. A voter's words are a direct input to the next rate decision, so an identical sentence prices differently depending on who says it: a voting president hinting at a pause is tradeable; a non-voter saying the same is context. The badge does the committee arithmetic for you: 7 governors + New York + 4 rotating presidents = 12 votes.

The hawk/dove read: reputation plus recent tone

Each official carries a HAWK / DOVE / NEUTRAL label with a scale bar from -3 (most dovish, filling left in blue) to +3 (most hawkish, filling right in red). That is their reputation: the baseline the market already prices. Separately, a ↻ chip (e.g. ↻HAWK3) shows a live read of their tone from their own statements over roughly the last six weeks, with the count of directional statements it is based on. When the ↻ chip disagrees with the reputation label, that divergence is the story.

How to gauge a board member talking

The market reaction to a speech is priced off the DEVIATION from expectations, not the absolute message. A known hawk sounding hawkish is nothing; a known hawk softening is a rally. So read a speaker in this order: (1) voter or non-voter; (2) their baseline lean on the scale bar; (3) the ↻ recent-tone chip: has the shift already started; (4) the venue, shown on the calendar row: prepared testimony or a monetary-policy conference outranks panel Q&A or commencement remarks. Then watch the live feed: remarks cross as Fed Speak items with the key excerpt and a hawk/dove read seconds after they publish, and the Chair's words outweigh everyone else's.

Speeches on the CALENDAR tab

Scheduled speeches also appear as purple rows on the main CALENDAR tab, prefixed with the speaker's surname and carrying the same voter badge. They are qualitative events: no forecast, no actual, no sigma bands: there is nothing numeric to capture, so the row will never show as awaiting data. The substance lands in the feed as it is spoken. For an official's full history, the Fed speaker hubs archive every captured speech with their lean and score.

FAQ

Why does a speech row have no forecast or actual?

Speeches are qualitative: there is no number to print. The calendar row is the schedule; the remarks themselves cross in the live feed with an excerpt and a hawk/dove read the moment they publish.

What does the ↻HAWK3 chip mean?

A live tone read from that official's own recent statements: HAWK direction, based on 3 directional statements in roughly the last six weeks. It updates as new remarks cross, and matters most when it diverges from their reputation label.

Who actually votes on rates?

All seven governors and the New York Fed president always vote. Four of the other eleven regional presidents rotate onto the committee each January. The VOTER/NON-VOTER badge on every row reflects the current year's rotation.

Why is a non-voter still worth watching?

Non-voters participate in every FOMC discussion and rotate into a vote eventually, and a coordinated shift in tone across several non-voters often front-runs the committee. They are context. Voters are catalysts.
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