ON THE DESK RIGHT NOW
2s10s +39bp
as of close · live on the rates board
2s10s Spread
The 2s10s spread is the yield on the 10-year Treasury note minus the yield on the 2-year note, quoted in basis points. It is the market’s default summary of the yield curve’s shape: positive means a normal upward slope, negative means inversion.
Traders watch 2s10s because the two legs answer different questions. The 2-year is essentially a bet on the Fed’s path over the next couple of years; the 10-year folds in long-run growth, inflation expectations, term premium, and supply. The spread therefore compresses cycle dynamics into one number, and its inversions have preceded every US recession in recent decades, making it the most-quoted recession gauge in finance.
- Bull steepening (2s fall faster than 10s): the market pricing rate cuts, classic ahead of easing cycles.
- Bear steepening (10s rise faster): term premium or supply pressure hitting the long end.
Worked example: The 2-year yields 3.95% and the 10-year 4.33%, putting 2s10s at +38bp. A soft CPI print hits: the 2-year rallies 12bp to 3.83% as cut odds jump, while the 10-year falls only 5bp to 4.28%. The spread bull-steepens 7bp to +45bp in an hour, a textbook front-end-led move.
On the Helious desk right now
FAQ
What is the 2s10s spread telling me right now?
The 2s10s is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, in basis points, and it is the single number that says what the curve is doing. Widening means steepening, usually growth or inflation or supply repricing the long end; narrowing means flattening, usually the front end pricing policy. Helious publishes the live level and the current regime with the time it flipped on the rates board.
Is a steepening curve bullish or bearish?
It depends which end is moving, which is why the regime matters more than the spread. A bull steepener is the front end rallying as cuts get priced. A bear steepener is the long end selling off on inflation, supply or term premium, and that one usually pressures equities. Helious classifies which regime is running right now from the live tape on the rates board.
What is a normal 2s10s level?
Historically positive, because lenders normally demand more yield to lend for longer. A negative 2s10s is an inversion and has preceded most US recessions, though with long and variable lead times. See yield curve inversion for what that signal is and is not worth.