Initial Jobless Claims: 187K, 10s +4bp — desk brief, Thu 23 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-22): 2s 4.31% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.15% (+2.0bp).
Tape (close 2026-07-22): VIX 16.64, 2s10s +36bp.
Narrative: Trump’s dubious nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia
What mattered:
• Initial Jobless Claims: 187K
• Ten-Year Jumps To Highest Levels Since Early 2025
• Odds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher
• The story gets worse: 30 year mortgage rates reach the highest level since August 2025
• Average 30-year US mortgage rate climbs to 6.58%, highest level in nearly a year