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Daily brief 04 Aug 2026, 21:05 UTC

This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Coul, 10s -5bp

desk brief, Tue 04 Aug 2026

Treasuries (close 2026-08-03): 2s 4.25% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp).

Tape (close 2026-08-03): VIX 15.86, 2s10s +45bp.

Narrative: Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Trump calls off Iran attack, oil and bond yields ease

What mattered:

This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Could Raise Rates in 2026
Treasuries Rise as Falling Oil Prices Trim Fed Rate-Hike Wagers
German 2 Yr Schatz Yield Actual 2.78 (Forecast -, Previous 1.1)
One Word Repeated 10 Times by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has Effectively Reshaped the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Approach
Alarming missile report draws forceful response from Trump as Iran war tests America’s arsenal

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