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Daily brief 29 Sept 2026, 21:05 UTC

Fed rate hike odds tumble to coin flip after Williams says no rush, 10s +7bp

Tue 29 Sep 2026

Treasuries (close 2026-09-28): 2s 4.92% (+11.0bp), 10s 5.24% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.56% (+7.0bp).

Tape (close 2026-09-28): VIX 16.07, 2s10s +32bp.

Narrative: Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief, Tehran says ready for talks

What mattered:

Fed rate hike odds tumble to coin flip after Williams says no rush
Traders trim bets on October Fed rate hike, see just one Fed rate hike by year-end after Fed's Williams says 'no urgency' on Fed action
Fed’s Musalem says policy still accommodative as demand fuels inflation
New York Fed's Williams sees one more rate hike late this year
Fed's Williams: The Fed must make sure high inflation does not become entrenched.

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