ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 120K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 120K, prev 82K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -17K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -17K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 182K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 182K, prev 184K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 451
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 451, prev 450. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-07-31.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.2, forecast 4.2, prev 4.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 55.4
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 55.4, forecast 54, prev 54. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 55.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 55.2, forecast 54, prev 54.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.6σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago PMI: 57.6
Chicago PMI — Actual 57.6, forecast 56, prev 56.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Employment Cost Index: 0.9
Employment Cost Index — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.8, prev 0.9. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.1B (-$1.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-30: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-30: $1.1B (prior day $2.6B).
DESK NOTE
Investigating Calendar Display Issue
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.4, prev 2.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
DE: Unemployment Rate s.a. — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Unemployment Change: 6K
DE: Unemployment Change — Actual 6K, forecast 5K, prev -1K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 1
BoJ Interest Rate Decision — Actual 1, forecast 1, prev 1. ON THE SCREWS. JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2
JP: Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2
JP: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
DAILY BRIEF
Mortgage rates move higher, Treasury yields surge, 10s +6bp · desk brief, Thu 30 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-29): 2s 4.22% (-4.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.2% (+11.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-29): VIX 20.66, 2s10s +45bp. Narrative: US 30-Year Yield Soars to 19-Y…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, -$9.2B w/w — QT run-off continues
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-29: $6,738,190M, vs $6,747,378M the prior week.
TREASURY AUCTION
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $100B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 2.69), high 3.675% (inv 3.747%), indirect 62.9% (avg 60.8), direct 4.0% (avg 3.9), dealer 33.1% (avg 35.3). IN…
TREASURY AUCTION
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $110B on offer, B/C 2.80 (avg 2.74), high 3.630% (inv 3.691%), indirect 65.0% (avg 63.4), direct 4.0% (avg 4.2), dealer 31.0% (avg 32.4). IN…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.0% (prior quarter 1.5%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.95%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 28.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 28.0B, forecast 35.0B, prev 32.0B. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-07-30.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Advance GDP q/q: +1.5%
Advance GDP q/q — Actual +1.5%, forecast 2.1%, prev 2.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) — Actual 5.1, prev 4.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.7, prev 4.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): -0.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.1, forecast -0.1, prev 0.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 203K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 203K, prev 208K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.3
Gross Domestic Product Price Index — Actual 6.3, forecast 3.6, prev 3.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.5
Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.5, forecast 2.1, prev 2.1. BELOW FORECAST · -1.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.4
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.5, prev 4.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.3
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Spending: 0.3
Personal Spending — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.7. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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