ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -68K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -68K, prev -11K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 123K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 123K, prev 122K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 243K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 243K, prev 222K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 447
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 447, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago PMI: 47.1
Chicago PMI — Actual 47.1, forecast 57.9, prev 57.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-28.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutra…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 51.5
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 51.5, forecast 50.6, prev 50.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4, forecast 4.3, prev 4.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 51.7, forecast 51, prev 51. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-27: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-27: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Business Climate: -0.23
Eurozone · Business Climate — Actual -0.23, prev -0.19. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: 98.4
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator — Actual 98.4, forecast 97.5, prev 96.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -15.5, prev -15.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a. — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.4, prev 6.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Unemployment Change: 4K
Germany · Unemployment Change — Actual 4K, forecast 5K, prev 6K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.7, prev 1.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.9
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 1.9, prev 2. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Unemployment Rate: 2.4
Japan · Unemployment Rate — Actual 2.4, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: 1.18
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio — Actual 1.18, forecast 1.19, prev 1.18. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.73T, -$14.8B w/w — QT run-off continues
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-26: $6,730,912M, vs $6,745,699M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 17
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 17. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 15.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 15.0B, forecast 19.0B, prev 16.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-27.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.80M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories: 1.3
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 1.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance: -118.8B
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -118.8B, forecast -99.0B, prev -102.1B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 6.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 206K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 206K, prev 204K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 203K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 203K, forecast 208K, prev 206K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (+$0.3B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-26: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-26: $0.7B (prior day $0.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: -26.6
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey — Actual -26.6, forecast -29.6, prev -29.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.6% (was 4.0%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.61%, revised from 4.03%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.03M
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.03M, prev -0.54M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -2.54M
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual -2.54M, prev 0.69M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -2.23M
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -2.23M, prev -1.53M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 0.10M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.10M, forecast 1.90M, prev 4.41M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-26.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 0.2%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.2%, prev 0.9%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 1.3
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 1.3, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
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