ECB Rate On Deposit Facility: 2.5
Economic release
ECB Rate On Deposit Facility — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.25. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate: 2.65
Economic release
ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate — Actual 2.65, forecast 2.65, prev 2.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (-$0.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-09: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-09: $0.4B (prior day $0.6B).
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.2. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.30M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -0.30M, forecast -1.30M, prev -2.60M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.0M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.0M, prev -0.03M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -1.2M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual -1.2M, prev -1.17M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: 0.8M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual 0.8M, prev 0.80M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -4.5M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -4.5M, prev -4.45M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-09.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 9.6. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 12K, prev 12K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (-$0.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-08: 3.64% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-08: $0.6B (prior day $0.7B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.7%, prev 0.8%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -4.5M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -4.5M, prev -2.60M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Credit Change: 18.1B
Economic release
Consumer Credit Change — Actual 18.1B, forecast 11.7B, prev 14.2B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-08.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-04: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-04: $0.7B (prior day $0.7B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 98.7
Economic release
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 98.7, forecast 99.3, prev 99.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Trade Balance s.a.: 21.3B
Economic release
Germany · Trade Balance s.a. — Actual 21.3B, forecast 16.0B, prev 15.4B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY): 2.6
Economic release
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.6, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Japan · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.4
Economic release
Japan · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.4
Economic release
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.4, forecast 1.1, prev 1.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Current Account n.s.a.: 2,988.0B
Economic release
Japan · Current Account n.s.a. — Actual 2,988.0B, forecast 2,870.0B, prev -92.3B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): 4.7
Economic release
Japan · Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) — Actual 4.7, forecast 3.9, prev 3.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 0.5
Economic release
UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.5, forecast 1.2, prev 1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY): 1.2
Economic release
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) — Actual 1.2, forecast 1, prev 1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ): 0.6
Economic release
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) — Actual 0.6, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · Employment Change (QoQ): 0.1
Economic release
Eurozone · Employment Change (QoQ) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence: 5.1
Economic release
Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 5.1, prev 0.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -76K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -76K, prev -68K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 228K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 228K, prev 243K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 130K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 130K, prev 123K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 449
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 449, prev 447. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-04.
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.7%
Economic release
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.7%, prev 7.9%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.6%
Economic release
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.6%, prev 61.4%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
Economic release
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.1%, forecast 4.1%, prev 4.1%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Nonfarm Payrolls: 162K
Economic release
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual 162K, forecast 56K, prev -23K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
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