ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.95
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.95, forecast 334.7, prev 335.12. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.8%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (MoM): -0.40%
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.40%, forecast -0.10%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.8%, prev 2.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.00%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 20K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 20K, prev 21K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.60% (+5bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.8B (+$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-13: 3.60% (prior 3.55%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-13: $0.8B (prior day $0.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.4
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 97.4, forecast 95.8, prev 95.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement: -120.0B
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -120.0B, forecast -132.8B, prev -293.0B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-13.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.55% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$5.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-10: 3.55% (prior 3.53%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-10: $0.5B (prior day $5.8B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -43K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -43K, prev -38K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 76K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 76K, prev 110K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services PMI: 54
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54, forecast 54.2, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Final Services PMI: 51.2
Final Services PMI — Actual 51.2, forecast 51.4, prev 51.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-10.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.53% (-5bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.8B (+$2.4B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-09: 3.53% (prior 3.58%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-09: $5.8B (prior day $3.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$11.0B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-08: $6,735,609M, vs $6,724,564M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +87.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +87.0Bcf, prev 87.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.7% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.7%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-09.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 4.09M
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.09M, prev 4.17M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 219K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 219K, prev 222K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 218K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.58% (-4bp) · Fed ON RRP $3.3B (-$1.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-08: 3.58% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-08: $3.3B (prior day $4.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change: $-0.2B
Consumer Credit Change — Actual $-0.2B, forecast $17.1B, prev $20.7B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.3% (was 1.4%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.26%, revised from 1.36%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.8M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.900M, prev -3.775M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-08.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories: 0.1%
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.5B (+$1.8B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-07: 3.62% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-07: $4.5B (prior day $2.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.2%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.2%, prev 0.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -3.8M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -3.8M, forecast -1.500M, prev -6.072M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.4% (was 1.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.36%, revised from 1.19%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-07.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): 45.5
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) — Actual 45.5, forecast 45, prev 42.5. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance: $-105.9B
Goods Trade Balance — Actual $-105.9B, prev $-105.8B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): 11.5%
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 11.5%, prev 10.5%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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