ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: 1.9%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 1.9%, prev -2.7%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
DAILY BRIEF
US ADP Wkly Employment Change Actual 16.5k (Forecast -, Previous 19.75, 10s +5bp — desk brief, Tue 21 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-20): 2s 4.21% (+3.0bp), 10s 4.6% (+5.0bp), 30s 5.11% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-20): VIX 18.65, 2s10s +37bp. Narrative: UniCredit: Has the Iran War Bec…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -1.7M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -1.7M, prev -0.06M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE. $95B on offer, B/C 2.79 (avg 2.93), high 3.650% (inv 3.717%), indirect 71.0% (avg 66.4), direct 2.6% (avg 3.2), dealer 26.4% (avg 30.4). IN LINE deman…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-21.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.8
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.8, prev 8.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 16K, prev 20K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.57% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.0B (-$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-20: 3.57% (prior 3.59%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-20: $0.0B (prior day $0.1B).
DAILY BRIEF
Canada Inflation Falls to 2.8%, Core Measures Ease, 10s -2bp — desk brief, Mon 20 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-17): 2s 4.18% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.55% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.06% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-17): VIX 18.77, 2s10s +37bp. Narrative: Energy secretary: US 'will con…
TREASURY AUCTION
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $79B on offer, B/C 2.94 (avg 2.79), high 3.835% (inv 3.965%), indirect 58.4% (avg 59.9), direct 11.0% (avg 6.8), dealer 30.6% (avg 33.2). I…
TREASURY AUCTION
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: STRONG
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $92B on offer, B/C 3.00 (avg 2.61), high 3.730% (inv 3.818%), indirect 55.8% (avg 52.0), direct 6.8% (avg 6.4), dealer 37.4% (avg 41.6). STR…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.9% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.9%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-20.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.59% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-17: 3.59% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-17: $0.1B (prior day $0.1B).
DAILY BRIEF
Week ahead: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Friday, S&P Global Services PMI Friday — US data & auctions, w/c 20 Jul 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 20 July 2026 — 15 scheduled US events, 2 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 15:30 UTC 13-Week Bill Auction · $92B • 15:30 UTC 26-Wee…
DAILY BRIEF
Credit Ágricole: FX & Gold Outlook, 10s +2bp — desk brief, Fri 17 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-16): 2s 4.16% (+3.0bp), 10s 4.57% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.09% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-16): VIX 16.73, 2s10s +41bp. Narrative: Chevron Will Explore a Pipelin…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 63K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 63K, prev 76K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 187K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 187K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -39K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -39K, prev -43K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 446, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.7%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.68%, revised from 1.74%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-17.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 54, prev 50.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.2, prev 4.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 54.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 54.4, forecast 51, prev 49.5. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Capacity Utilization: 76.1
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.1, forecast 76.2, prev 76.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (YoY): 7.1
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.1, prev 6.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (YoY): 10.2
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 10.2, prev 11.2. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (MoM): -0.6
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast -0.4, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (MoM): 0.3%
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3%, forecast -0.7%, prev 1.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.3σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.43M
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.43M, prev 1.18M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Building Permits (MoM): 1.37M
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.37M, prev 1.41M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-16: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-16: $0.1B (prior day $0.2B).
DAILY BRIEF
BOK Delivers First Rate Hike Since Early 2023 Amid Chip-Led Boom, 10s -3bp — desk brief, Thu 16 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-15): 2s 4.13% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.55% (-3.0bp), 30s 5.08% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-15): VIX 15.67, 2s10s +42bp. Narrative: Fed's Chair Warsh: The labor m…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$7.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-15: $6,743,028M, vs $6,735,609M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.3%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.74%, revised from 1.26%.
TREASURY AUCTION
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $100B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 2.86), high 3.722%, indirect 67.6% (avg 65.3), direct 3.9% (avg 3.4), dealer 28.4% (avg 31.3). IN LINE demand,…
TREASURY AUCTION
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK. $110B on offer, B/C 2.57 (avg 2.88), high 3.721%, indirect 53.7% (avg 63.9), direct 5.5% (avg 3.3), dealer 40.8% (avg 32.9). WEAK demand → bond…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +61.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +61.0Bcf, prev 61.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-16.
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