UK · Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.5
Economic release
UK · Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.5, forecast 3.5, prev 3.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
These 3 under-the-radar stocks could rally if Fed raises rates this we, 10s +1bp · Mon 14 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-11): 2s 4.63% (+7.0bp), 10s 4.96% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.35% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-11): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +33bp.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $79B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 2.89), high 4.060% (inv 4.203%), indirect 60.8% (avg 58.1), direct 6.2% (avg 9.8), dealer 33.1% (avg 32.2).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $92B on offer, B/C 2.64 (avg 2.80), high 3.970% (inv 4.066%), indirect 55.1% (avg 54.7), direct 6.8% (avg 7.2), dealer 38.1% (avg 38.1).
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $5.3B (+$0.5B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-11: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-11: $5.3B (prior day $4.7B).
Week ahead: Retail Sales Wednesday, Retail Sales Control Group Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 14 Sep 2026
Daily brief
The week of Monday 14 September 2026 has 27 scheduled US events, 10 high-impact, 8 Treasury auctions.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.30%, 10s +12bp · Fri 11 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-10): 2s 4.56% (+13.0bp), 10s 4.95% (+12.0bp), 30s 5.37% (+9.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-10): VIX 17.84, 2s10s +39bp.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 232K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 232K, prev 228K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 137K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 137K, prev 130K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -76K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -76K, prev -76K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Monthly Budget Statement: -166.8B
Economic release
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -166.8B, forecast -404.0B, prev -432.0B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 6.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 450
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 450, prev 449. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 2.2%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-11.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.4
Economic release
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.4, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 45.8
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 45.8, prev 51.5. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.6
Economic release
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.6, prev 4. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 47.8
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 47.8, forecast 51, prev 51.7. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Traders now see about a 90% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, vs about 70% before the inflation report.
Desk note
Market repricing toward Fed hikes after hot inflation data tightens policy expectations, pushing borrowing costs higher and squeezing both bonds and shares.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 337.76
Economic release
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 337.76, prev 336.79. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 334.98
Economic release
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 334.98, forecast 334.85, prev 333.92. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.4%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.4%, forecast 2.4%, prev 2.5%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.30%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.4%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.4%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.40%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.40%, forecast 0.40%, prev 0.10%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.7B (+$4.3B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-10: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-10: $4.7B (prior day $0.4B).
UK · Consumer Inflation Expectations: 3.2
Economic release
UK · Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.2, prev 4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.4
Economic release
UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0, prev 0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY): 7.6
Economic release
Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.6, forecast 7.4, prev 7.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.2
Economic release
Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.2, forecast 0, prev 0.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Treasury yields surge after Bessent’s beefed-up buyback operation fail, 10s +3bp · Thu 10 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-09): 2s 4.43% (+4.0bp), 10s 4.83% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.28% (+3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-09): VIX 16.46, 2s10s +39bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$3.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-09: $6,740,619M, vs $6,737,204M the prior week.
30-Year Bond auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $22B on offer, B/C 2.61 (avg 2.38), high 5.308%, stopped through 2.7bp, indirect 79.5% (avg 66.4), direct 18.3% (avg 22.0), dealer 2.2% (avg 11.5). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.01M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.01M, prev -0.03M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 1.27M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual 1.27M, prev -1.17M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: 2.09M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual 2.09M, prev 0.80M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -0.39M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.39M, forecast -1.60M, prev -4.45M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.4% (was 4.7%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.42%, revised from 4.75%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $85B on offer, B/C 2.82 (avg 2.86), high 3.845% (inv 3.922%), indirect 66.3% (avg 61.3), direct 6.0% (avg 4.5), dealer 27.7% (avg 34.2).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $90B on offer, B/C 2.81 (avg 2.80), high 3.775% (inv 3.839%), indirect 71.8% (avg 62.8), direct 3.9% (avg 4.2), dealer 24.3% (avg 33.0).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 40.0B
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 40.0B, forecast 35.0B, prev 30.0B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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