ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods and Services Trade Balance: $-77.6B
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual $-77.6B, forecast $-78.0B, prev $-55.9B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 21K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 21K, prev 31K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.7B (+$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-06: 3.63% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-06: $2.7B (prior day $2.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -38K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -38K, prev -35K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 110K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 110K, prev 115K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 194K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 194K, prev 181K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-06.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Prices Paid: 67.7
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 67.7, prev 71.3. BELOW FORECAST · -1.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services New Orders Index: 55.1
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 55.1, prev 57.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Employment Index: 51.2
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 51.2, prev 47.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.9
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 51.9, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-02: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-01: 3.66% (prior 3.68%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-02: $2.2B (prior day $1.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.72T, -$11.1B w/w — QT run-off continues
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-01: $6,724,564M, vs $6,735,645M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.0% · core PCE 3.5%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.0%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-03.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.2% (prior quarter 1.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.19%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Confidence: 91.2
Consumer Confidence — Actual 91.2, forecast 94.4, prev 93.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 445
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 445, prev 440. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +76.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +76.0Bcf, forecast 81, prev 76. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Factory Orders (MoM): -1.3%
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast -1.8%, prev 4.8%. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9, prev 8.1. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.5, prev 61.8. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 222K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 222K, prev 224K. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 2K
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 2K, forecast 2K, prev 2K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Weekly Hours: 34.3
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.5%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.4%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 215K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 215K, forecast 220K, prev 215K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.3%, prev 4.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls: 57K
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual 57K, forecast 110K, prev 172K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.30%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Total Vehicle Sales: 16.500M
Total Vehicle Sales — Actual 16.500M, forecast 16.1M, prev 16.100M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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