ISM Services PMI: 55.4
Economic release
ISM Services PMI — Actual 55.4, forecast 54.3, prev 54.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.5
Economic release
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 56.5, forecast 56.8, prev 56.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 56
Economic release
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 56, forecast 56, prev 56. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods Trade Balance: -119.6B
Economic release
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -119.6B, prev -118.8B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Unit Labor Costs: 1.2
Economic release
Unit Labor Costs — Actual 1.2, forecast 1.3, prev 1.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4
Economic release
Nonfarm Productivity — Actual 1.4, forecast 1.4, prev 1.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods and Services Trade Balance: -88.6B
Economic release
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual -88.6B, forecast -90.0B, prev -73.3B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 207K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 207K, prev 206K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 206K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 206K, forecast 205K, prev 203K. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-02: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-02: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
Challenger Job Cuts: 53K
Economic release
Challenger Job Cuts — Actual 53K, prev 33K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (YoY): 5.8
Economic release
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.8, prev 4.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.6
Economic release
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 1.6, forecast 1.2, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 52
Economic release
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52, forecast 52.1, prev 52.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 49.7
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 49.7, forecast 48.5, prev 48.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 51.8
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51.8, forecast 51, prev 51. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
US and Iran Renew Fighting, Global Bond Rout Deepens, 10s +4bp · desk brief, Wed 02 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-01): 2s 4.39% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.79% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.27% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-01): VIX 16.34, 2s10s +40bp.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: WEAK
Treasury auction
. $72B on offer, B/C 2.78 (avg 3.10), high 3.855% (inv 3.959%), indirect 51.2% (avg 59.8), direct 6.7% (avg 6.7), dealer 42.1% (avg 33.5). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.03M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.03M, prev 0.03M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -1.17M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual -1.17M, prev -2.54M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: 0.80M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual 0.80M, prev -2.23M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -4.45M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -4.45M, forecast -1.10M, prev 0.10M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-02.
Factory Orders (MoM): 0.9
Economic release
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.6, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ADP Employment Change: 38K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change — Actual 38K, forecast 47K, prev 44K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$6.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-01: 3.66% (prior 3.68%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-01: $0.7B (prior day $6.7B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: 0.8%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 0.8%, prev -1.0%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Total Vehicle Sales: 16.80M
Economic release
Total Vehicle Sales — Actual 16.80M, forecast 16.30M, prev 16.30M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Bond sell-off soars amid inflation, debt fears, 10s +2bp · desk brief, Tue 01 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-31): 2s 4.34% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.75% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.25% (+3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-31): VIX 14.92, 2s10s +41bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -2.60M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -2.60M, forecast -0.80M, prev 4.20M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.8% (was 4.6%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.82%, revised from 4.61%.
52-Week (1-year) Bill auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $52B on offer, B/C 3.61 (avg 3.36), high 3.980% (inv 4.161%), indirect 75.2% (avg 64.8), direct 3.3% (avg 3.6), dealer 21.4% (avg 31.7). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $85B on offer, B/C 2.85 (avg 2.88), high 3.735% (inv 3.803%), indirect 67.7% (avg 67.9), direct 3.4% (avg 3.4), dealer 28.9% (avg 28.7).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-01.
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): 45.6
Economic release
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) — Actual 45.6, forecast 46.2, prev 45.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.27M
Economic release
JOLTS Job Openings — Actual 7.27M, forecast 7.30M, prev 7.36M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 53.7
Economic release
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index — Actual 53.7, prev 56.7. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 51.2
Economic release
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index — Actual 51.2, prev 52.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 71.1
Economic release
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid — Actual 71.1, forecast 72, prev 71.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
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