ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders: 1.1
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev 0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.4
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.5, prev 0.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5.3
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) — Actual 5.3, forecast 5.1, prev 5.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Spending: 0.2
Personal Spending — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.6, prev 3.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.1, prev -0.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.5
Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.5, forecast 1.5, prev 1.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.7
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Income (MoM): 0.4
Personal Income (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.4
Gross Domestic Product Price Index — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Prelim GDP q/q: +1.5%
Prelim GDP q/q — Actual +1.5%, forecast 1.5%, prev 1.5%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.3
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-25: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-25: $0.4B (prior day $0.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.0%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -1.0%, prev -0.4%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 4.20M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 4.20M, forecast 1.90M, prev -0.33M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-25.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 4
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — Actual 4, forecast 7, prev 5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.61M
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.61M, forecast 0.62M, prev 0.63M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Confidence: 89.4
Consumer Confidence — Actual 89.4, forecast 90.3, prev 90.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 2.1
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) — Actual 2.1, forecast 1.7, prev 1.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0
Housing Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): 9.1
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 9.1, prev 7.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 12K, prev 10K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-24: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-24: $0.4B (prior day $0.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Expectations: 89.1
Germany · IFO – Expectations — Actual 89.1, forecast 87.5, prev 86.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: 88.5
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment — Actual 88.5, forecast 87, prev 86.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: 88.8
Germany · IFO – Business Climate — Actual 88.8, forecast 87.2, prev 86.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY): 1
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) — Actual 1, prev 0.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-24.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.08
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.08, prev -0.02. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-21: 3.65% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-21: $0.2B (prior day $0.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 122K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 122K, prev 99K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -11K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -11K, prev 11K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 222K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 222K, prev 218K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 456, prev 455. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-21.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -16.3, prev -15.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
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