Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 6.7
Economic release
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 6.7, prev 4.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.9
Economic release
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.9, forecast 0.8, prev 1.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.7 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 5.0% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.3% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 5.0%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.3%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-19.
NAHB Housing Market Index: 29
Economic release
NAHB Housing Market Index: Actual 29, forecast 32, prev 32. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$1.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-16: 3.88% (prior 3.89%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-16: $0.1B (prior day $1.2B).
Total Net TIC Flows: 199.8B
Economic release
Total Net TIC Flows: Actual 199.8B, prev 83.7B. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 279.2B
Economic release
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: Actual 279.2B, forecast 75.2B, prev -27.9B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 100K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 100K, prev 99K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -141K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -141K, prev -154K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 208K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 208K, prev 210K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Monthly Budget Statement: -27.0B
Economic release
Monthly Budget Statement: Actual -27.0B, forecast -29.0B, prev -166.8B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 459
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 459, prev 462. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.8% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.8%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-16.
Capacity Utilization: 76.9
Economic release
Capacity Utilization: Actual 76.9, forecast 76.5, prev 76.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Import Price Index (YoY): 8.1%
Economic release
Import Price Index (YoY): Actual 8.1%, prev 7.0%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Export Price Index (YoY): 11.6%
Economic release
Export Price Index (YoY): Actual 11.6%, prev 8.6%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Export Price Index (MoM): 2.2%
Economic release
Export Price Index (MoM): Actual 2.2%, forecast 1.0%, prev 0.6%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): 1.1%
Economic release
Import Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.1%, forecast 0.8%, prev 0.7%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.89% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.2B (+$1.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-15: 3.89% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-15: $1.2B (prior day $0.2B).
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.6, prev 0.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Fed balance sheet $6.76T, +$8.1B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-10-14: $6,755,639M, vs $6,747,560M the prior week.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.45M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual -0.45M, prev 0.67M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 3.52M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual 3.52M, prev 0.38M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -8.56M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual -8.56M, forecast -0.30M, prev -3.19M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -2.53M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual -2.53M, prev -0.04M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.6% (was 3.6%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.64%, revised from 3.59%.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 67.0B
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Actual 67.0B, forecast 76.0B, prev 85.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.8% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.8%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-15.
Business Inventories: 0.4
Economic release
Business Inventories: Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.8. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales (YoY): 6.3
Economic release
Retail Sales (YoY): Actual 6.3, prev 6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.71M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual 1.71M, prev 1.72M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales Control Group: 0.10%
Economic release
Retail Sales Control Group: Actual 0.10%, prev 1.40%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): 0.9
Economic release
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): Actual 0.9, forecast 0.5, prev 1.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 5.0%
Economic release
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): Actual 5.0%, forecast 4.4%, prev 4.6%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index (YoY): 6.3%
Economic release
Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 6.3%, forecast 5.3%, prev 5.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 5.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 20.9
Economic release
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: Actual 20.9, forecast 28.4, prev 37.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): 0.8
Economic release
Retail Sales (MoM): Actual 0.8, forecast 0.3, prev 1.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.30%
Economic release
Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.30%, forecast 0.50%, prev 0.40%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 5.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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