Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -686.0B
Economic release
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance — Actual -686.0B, forecast -680.0B, prev -881.9B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Japan · Imports (YoY): 27.8
Economic release
Japan · Imports (YoY) — Actual 27.8, forecast 26.5, prev 25.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Exports (YoY): 23.2
Economic release
Japan · Exports (YoY) — Actual 23.2, forecast 19.9, prev 19.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Treasury announces upscaled buyback operation for longer-term debt, se, 10s -1bp · desk brief, Wed 19 Aug 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-18): 2s 4.19% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.71% (-1.0bp), 30s 5.28% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-18): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +46bp.
20-Year Bond auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $16B on offer, B/C 2.53 (avg 2.62), high 5.204%, tailed 0.5bp, indirect 62.9% (avg 66.7), direct 24.6% (avg 21.8), dealer 12.5% (avg 11.5).
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $72B on offer, B/C 3.35 (avg 3.15), high 3.750% (inv 3.850%), indirect 60.8% (avg 61.2), direct 6.3% (avg 6.2), dealer 32.9% (avg 32.5).
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.54M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.54M, prev 0.19M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 0.69M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual 0.69M, prev -0.97M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -1.53M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -1.53M, prev -0.01M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 4.41M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 4.41M, forecast -0.60M, prev 17.42M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-19.
US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities
Desk note
Treasury is buying back longer-dated bonds to support market liquidity, which eases funding conditions and supports the long end of the curve.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-18: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-18: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -0.4%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -0.4%, prev 3.6%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0, prev 0. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY): 3.2
Economic release
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.2, forecast 3.2, prev 3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a: 3.1
Economic release
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 3.1, forecast 3.2, prev 3.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.2
Economic release
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a: 2.8
Economic release
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 2.8, prev 2.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.6
Economic release
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.6, prev 0.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.6
Economic release
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.5, prev 2.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.9
Economic release
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.3
Economic release
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
Government borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs, 10s +4bp · desk brief, Tue 18 Aug 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-17): 2s 4.19% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.72% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.31% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-17): VIX 15.19, 2s10s +53bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.33M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -0.33M, prev 9.07M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.0% (was 4.3%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.03%, revised from 4.31%.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.97 (avg 2.86), high 3.645% (inv 3.711%), indirect 65.5% (avg 68.7), direct 4.7% (avg 3.1), dealer 29.7% (avg 28.2).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-18.
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -2.2
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -2.2, prev -0.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -2.3
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -2.3, forecast 0.3, prev -5.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Capacity Utilization: 76.3
Economic release
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.3, forecast 76.3, prev 76.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.6
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.6, prev 8.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Import Price Index (YoY): 5.9%
Economic release
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.9%, prev 7.1%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (YoY): 8.2%
Economic release
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2%, prev 10.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -4.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Building Permits (MoM): 1.44M
Economic release
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.44M, forecast 1.37M, prev 1.37M. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (MoM): -1.3%
Economic release
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast 0.2%, prev -0.6%. BELOW FORECAST · -5.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): -0.4%
Economic release
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.4%, forecast 0.1%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
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