Personal Spending: 0.3
Economic release
Personal Spending — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.7. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Personal Income (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Personal Income (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 197K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 197K, forecast 200K, prev 187K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.1
Economic release
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $2.6B (+$1.4B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-29: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-29: $2.6B (prior day $1.1B).
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.8
Economic release
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.7, prev 2.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
Economic release
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.8
Economic release
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.8, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Fed Interest Rate Decision: 3.75%
Economic release
Fed Interest Rate Decision — Actual 3.75%, forecast 3.75%, prev 3.75%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -7.17M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -7.17M, forecast -2.50M, prev 2.01M. BELOW FORECAST · -1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-29.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.1B (-$0.3B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-28: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-28: $1.1B (prior day $1.4B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.4%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -6.4%, prev 1.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.30M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 3.30M, forecast -1.50M, prev 2.60M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.5% (was 1.6%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.54%, revised from 1.58%.
Consumer Confidence: 90.8
Economic release
Consumer Confidence — Actual 90.8, forecast 92.3, prev 91.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-28.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 5
Economic release
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — Actual 5, forecast 10, prev 4. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 7.8. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 1.6
Economic release
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) — Actual 1.6, forecast 1.3, prev 1.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0.3
Economic release
Housing Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Wholesale Inventories: 0.3
Economic release
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev 0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods Trade Balance: -101.5B
Economic release
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -101.5B, forecast -98.0B, prev -106.5B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 15K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 15K, prev 16K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (+$0.7B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-27: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-27: $1.4B (prior day $0.7B).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.6% (was 1.7%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.58%, revised from 1.68%.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: 1.3
Economic release
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index — Actual 1.3, prev 0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-27.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 0.9
Economic release
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.9, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 0.3
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 0.3, prev -4.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders: 0.3
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 0.3, forecast 1.6, prev -4.5. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.6
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.6, forecast 0.9, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-24: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-24: $0.7B (prior day $0.9B).
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 82K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 82K, prev 63K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -17K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -39K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 184K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 184K, prev 187K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 450
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 450, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.8% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.8%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-24.
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.63M
Economic release
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.63M, forecast 0.61M, prev 0.58M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.8
Economic release
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.8, forecast 54.5, prev 53.9. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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