Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-16: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-16: $0.1B (prior day $0.2B).
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$7.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-15: $6,743,028M, vs $6,735,609M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.3%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.74%, revised from 1.26%.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +61.0Bcf
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +61.0Bcf, prev 61.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-16.
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -0.3
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.3, prev 4.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -5.4
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -5.4, forecast -0.5, prev 3.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
NAHB Housing Market Index: 34
Economic release
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 34, forecast 35, prev 35. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Business Inventories: 0.3
Economic release
Business Inventories — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.5. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Retail Sales Control Group: 0.50%
Economic release
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual 0.50%, forecast 0.50%, prev 0.70%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 214K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 214K, prev 219K. BELOW FORECAST · -357.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.81M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 208K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 208K, prev 215K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 41.4
Economic release
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 41.4, forecast 13, prev 10.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.2
Economic release
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.2, forecast -0.1, prev 0.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-15: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-15: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: +3.0M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual +3.0M, prev 3.00M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-15.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.7%
Economic release
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 5.2%, prev 4.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index (YoY): 5.5%
Economic release
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.5%, forecast 6.2%, prev 6.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
Economic release
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.40%, prev 0.40%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.28%
Economic release
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.28%, forecast 0.00%, prev 1.10%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 15.6
Economic release
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 15.6, forecast 8.8, prev 5.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.5B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-14: 3.63% (prior 3.60%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-14: $0.3B (prior day $0.8B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.7%, prev -2.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +3.0M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual +3.0M, prev -0.40M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Total Net TIC Flows: 132.2B
Economic release
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 132.2B, prev 26.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 232.7B
Economic release
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 232.7B, forecast 128.0B, prev 103.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-14.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.2
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2, prev 11.5. BELOW FORECAST · -5.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.07
Economic release
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.07, prev 336.121. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.95
Economic release
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.95, forecast 334.7, prev 335.12. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.8%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index (MoM): -0.40%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.40%, forecast -0.10%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.8%, prev 2.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.00%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 20K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 20K, prev 21K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.60% (+5bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.8B (+$0.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-13: 3.60% (prior 3.55%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-13: $0.8B (prior day $0.5B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.4
Economic release
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 97.4, forecast 95.8, prev 95.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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