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Latest desk notes

US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK

Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.70%

Economic release
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): Actual 0.70%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.20%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 198K

Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: Actual 198K, prev 198K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 25.5

Economic release
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: Actual 25.5, forecast 10.3, prev 7.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Initial Jobless Claims: 199K

Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 199K, forecast 200K, prev 197K. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)

Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-14: 3.88% (prior 3.89%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-14: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).

UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.1

Economic release
UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM): Actual 0.1, forecast -0.1, prev 0.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -11.10M

Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual -11.10M, forecast 1.90M, prev -2.10M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 4.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.8% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.2% · core PCE 3.2%

Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.8%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-14.

Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 336.94

Economic release
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): Actual 336.94, forecast 336.65, prev 334.98. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 338.90

Economic release
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: Actual 338.90, prev 337.76. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%

Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.30%

Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.30%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.7%

Economic release
Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.7%, forecast 3.6%, prev 3.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.60%

Economic release
Consumer Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.60%, forecast 0.60%, prev 0.40%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

Money markets: SOFR 3.89% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.0B d/d)

Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-13: 3.89% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-13: $0.3B (prior day $0.3B).

MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%

Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -2.7%, prev -4.2%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.5% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 4.1% · core PCE 3.1%

Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.5%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 4.1%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-13.

Existing Home Sales (MoM): 3.99M

Economic release
Existing Home Sales (MoM): Actual 3.99M, forecast 3.95M, prev 3.98M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Existing Home Sales Change (MoM): 1.5

Economic release
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM): Actual 1.5, prev -2. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Redbook Index (YoY): 10.4

Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY): Actual 10.4, prev 8.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 25K

Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: Actual 25K, prev 24K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.0B d/d)

Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-09: 3.87% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-09: $0.3B (prior day $0.3B).

NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.9

Economic release
NFIB Business Optimism Index: Actual 97.9, forecast 98, prev 98.7. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 3.3

Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6

Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.6, prev 0.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY): 6.8

Economic release
Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 6.8, forecast 7.6, prev 7.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.

Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.3

Economic release
Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual -0.3, forecast 0.5, prev -0.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.2 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.

UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 1

Economic release
UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): Actual 1, forecast 0.7, prev 0.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 99K

Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 99K, prev 110K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -154K

Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -154K, prev -142K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 210K

Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 210K, prev 219K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 462

Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 462, prev 456. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.4% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 4.0% · core PCE 3.1%

Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.4%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 4.0%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-09.

UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.5

Economic release
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: Actual 3.5, prev 3.4. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 47.3

Economic release
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: Actual 47.3, prev 46.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.

UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.7

Economic release
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: Actual 4.7, prev 4.6. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 46.3

Economic release
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Actual 46.3, forecast 47.6, prev 48.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.

Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$2.0B d/d)

Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-08: 3.87% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-08: $0.3B (prior day $2.3B).

Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$4.5B w/w — balance sheet expanding

Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-10-07: $6,747,560M, vs $6,743,031M the prior week.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.6% (was 3.7%)

Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.59%, revised from 3.68%.
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