ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 56.8, forecast 54, prev 54.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.2, forecast 53.9, prev 53.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI: 56
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 56, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-20: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-20: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: 52.8
UK · S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 52.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.5
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 51.5, forecast 51.5, prev 51.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: 52.5
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 52.5, forecast 51.6, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.8
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 51.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: 51.7
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 51.7, forecast 51.5, prev 51.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 52.1
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52.1, forecast 51.7, prev 52. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 48.5
Germany · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 48.5, forecast 50.1, prev 49.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.8 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 54.1
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 52, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 51
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51, forecast 51.3, prev 51.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY): 2.3
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) — Actual 2.3, forecast 3.3, prev 5.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM): -0.9
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) — Actual -0.9, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (YoY): 1.6
UK · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1.6, forecast 2.2, prev 4.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (MoM): -0.5
UK · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.5, forecast -0.5, prev 1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.8
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 1.8, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.8, prev 1.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: -14
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual -14, forecast -18, prev -17. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, -$14.3B w/w — QT run-off continues
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-19: $6,745,699M, vs $6,759,955M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 16.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 16.0B, forecast 17.0B, prev 36.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-20.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 47.4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 47.4, forecast 25, prev 41.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 204K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 204K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 206K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 206K, forecast 210K, prev 209K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-19: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-19: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 3
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3, forecast 2.7, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -686.0B
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance — Actual -686.0B, forecast -680.0B, prev -881.9B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Eq…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Imports (YoY): 27.8
Japan · Imports (YoY) — Actual 27.8, forecast 26.5, prev 25.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Exports (YoY): 23.2
Japan · Exports (YoY) — Actual 23.2, forecast 19.9, prev 19.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.54M
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.54M, prev 0.19M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 0.69M
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual 0.69M, prev -0.97M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -1.53M
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -1.53M, prev -0.01M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 4.41M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 4.41M, forecast -0.60M, prev 17.42M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-19.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-18: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-18: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
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