Credit Ágricole: FX & Gold Outlook, 10s +2bp — desk brief, Fri 17 Jul 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-07-16): 2s 4.16% (+3.0bp), 10s 4.57% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.09% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-16): VIX 16.73, 2s10s +41bp.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 63K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 63K, prev 76K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 187K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 187K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -39K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -39K, prev -43K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 446, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.7%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.68%, revised from 1.74%.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-17.
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 54, prev 50.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
Economic release
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2
Economic release
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.2, prev 4.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 54.4
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 54.4, forecast 51, prev 49.5. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Capacity Utilization: 76.1
Economic release
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.1, forecast 76.2, prev 76.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Import Price Index (YoY): 7.1
Economic release
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.1, prev 6.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Export Price Index (YoY): 10.2
Economic release
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 10.2, prev 11.2. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (MoM): -0.6
Economic release
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast -0.4, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): 0.3%
Economic release
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3%, forecast -0.7%, prev 1.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.3σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.43M
Economic release
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.43M, prev 1.18M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Building Permits (MoM): 1.37M
Economic release
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.37M, prev 1.41M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-16: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-16: $0.1B (prior day $0.2B).
BOK Delivers First Rate Hike Since Early 2023 Amid Chip-Led Boom, 10s -3bp — desk brief, Thu 16 Jul 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-07-15): 2s 4.13% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.55% (-3.0bp), 30s 5.08% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-15): VIX 15.67, 2s10s +42bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$7.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-15: $6,743,028M, vs $6,735,609M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.3%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.74%, revised from 1.26%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 2.86), high 3.722%, indirect 67.6% (avg 65.3), direct 3.9% (avg 3.4), dealer 28.4% (avg 31.3). IN LINE demand, no directional read for bonds.
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK
Treasury auction
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.57 (avg 2.88), high 3.721%, indirect 53.7% (avg 63.9), direct 5.5% (avg 3.3), dealer 40.8% (avg 32.9). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +61.0Bcf
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +61.0Bcf, prev 61.0B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-16.
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -0.3
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.3, prev 4.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -5.4
Economic release
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -5.4, forecast -0.5, prev 3.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
NAHB Housing Market Index: 34
Economic release
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 34, forecast 35, prev 35. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Business Inventories: 0.3
Economic release
Business Inventories — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.5. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Retail Sales Control Group: 0.50%
Economic release
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual 0.50%, forecast 0.50%, prev 0.70%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 214K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 214K, prev 219K. BELOW FORECAST · -357.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.81M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 208K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 208K, prev 215K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 41.4
Economic release
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 41.4, forecast 13, prev 10.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.2
Economic release
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.2, forecast -0.1, prev 0.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-15: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-15: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.7%, 10s -4bp — desk brief, Wed 15 Jul 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-07-14): 2s 4.18% (-8.0bp), 10s 4.58% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.08% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-14): VIX 16.5, 2s10s +40bp.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $72B on offer, B/C 3.35 (avg 2.92), high 3.845%, indirect 60.0% (avg 58.6), direct 6.1% (avg 4.8), dealer 33.8% (avg 36.6). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
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