ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: -0.4%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -0.4%, prev 3.6%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0, prev 0. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral ·…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY): 3.2
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.2, forecast 3.2, prev 3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM): 0.6
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a: 3.1
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 3.1, forecast 3.2, prev 3.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.2
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neu…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a: 2.8
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 2.8, prev 2.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.6
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.6, prev 0.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.6
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.5, prev 2.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.9
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.3
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.33M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -0.33M, prev 9.07M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.0% (was 4.3%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.03%, revised from 4.31%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-18.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -2.2
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -2.2, prev -0.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (MoM): -2.3
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -2.3, forecast 0.3, prev -5.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Capacity Utilization: 76.3
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.3, forecast 76.3, prev 76.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.6
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.6, prev 8.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (YoY): 5.9%
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.9%, prev 7.1%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (YoY): 8.2%
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2%, prev 10.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -4.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Building Permits (MoM): 1.44M
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.44M, forecast 1.37M, prev 1.37M. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (MoM): -1.3%
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast 0.2%, prev -0.6%. BELOW FORECAST · -5.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (MoM): -0.4%
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.4%, forecast 0.1%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.24M
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.24M, forecast 1.35M, prev 1.43M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 10K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 10K, prev 8K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+4bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-17: 3.66% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-17: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 31.4
EU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 31.4, forecast 25.4, prev 23.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 34.2
DE: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 34.2, forecast 30, prev 26.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: ZEW Survey – Current Situation: -61.1
DE: ZEW Survey – Current Situation — Actual -61.1, forecast -68.8, prev -77.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Claimant Count Rate: 4.3
GB: Claimant Count Rate — Actual 4.3, prev 4.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Claimant Count Change: -11K
GB: Claimant Count Change — Actual -11K, forecast 11K, prev 7K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.5σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Employment Change (3M): 83K
GB: Employment Change (3M) — Actual 83K, prev 147K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): 4.9
GB: ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) — Actual 4.9, forecast 4.8, prev 4.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 4.1
GB: Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 4.1, forecast 4.1, prev 4.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.5
GB: Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.5, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Total Net TIC Flows: 133.5B
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 133.5B, prev 132.2B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 172.7B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 172.7B, forecast 151.4B, prev 232.7B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-17.
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