ECONOMIC RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index: 35
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 35, forecast 33, prev 34. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 20.6
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 20.6, forecast 11, prev 15.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-14: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-14: $0.2B (prior day $0.5B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY): 2.6
JP: Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.4, prev 3.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3
JP: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.5, prev 0.5. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.1
JP: Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.1, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 218K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 218K, prev 198K. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 99K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 99K, prev 112K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: 11K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual 11K, prev -27K. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 455
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 455, prev 454. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.3% (was 5.8%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.31%, revised from 5.83%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-14.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 51
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 51, forecast 54.5, prev 55.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 50.6
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 50.6, prev 55.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Business Inventories: 0
Business Inventories — Actual 0, forecast 0.1, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.3, prev 4.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales Control Group: -0.40%
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual -0.40%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.3
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.3B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-13: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-13: $0.5B (prior day $0.7B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY): 1
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1, prev 1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ): 0.4
EU: Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Employment Change (QoQ): 0.1
EU: Employment Change (QoQ) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.76T, +$11.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-12: $6,759,955M, vs $6,748,567M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 36.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 36.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 33.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-13.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · -0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.7%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.7%
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 4.9%, prev 5.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.00%
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev -0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 209K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 209K, forecast 202K, prev 199K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-12: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-12: $0.7B (prior day $1.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.2
GB: Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1.2, forecast 1.1, prev 0.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.4
GB: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.6. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.3
GB: Gross Domestic Product (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0, prev 0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.0σ. Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement: -432.0B
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -432.0B, forecast -346.0B, prev -120.0B. BELOW FORECAST · -2.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 17.42M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 17.42M, forecast -1.40M, prev 2.48M. ABOVE FORECAST · +7.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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