Challenger Job Cuts: 43K
Economic release
Challenger Job Cuts: Actual 43K, prev 53K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Eurozone · Unemployment Rate: 6.4
Economic release
Eurozone · Unemployment Rate: Actual 6.4, prev 6.4. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 53.9
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: Actual 53.9, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook: 21
Economic release
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook: Actual 21, forecast 22, prev 17. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Index: 24
Economic release
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Index: Actual 24, forecast 25, prev 22. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Tankan Large All Industry Capex: 11.3
Economic release
Japan · Tankan Large All Industry Capex: Actual 11.3, forecast 12.3, prev 11.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Grain Stock Report: 2.10B
Economic release
Grain Stock Report: Actual 2.10B. RELEASED. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.7% (was 5.0%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.74%, revised from 5.02%.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -2.25M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual -2.25M, prev -0.43M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -1.68M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual -1.68M, prev -1.69M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.62M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual -0.62M, prev 0.35M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 0.92M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual 0.92M, forecast -0.30M, prev 2.97M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 1.9% · core PCE 2.3%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.2%, PCE 1.9%, core PCE 2.3%. Model update as of 2026-09-30.
Chicago PMI: 58.8
Economic release
Chicago PMI: Actual 58.8, forecast 51.2, prev 47.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5
Economic release
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): Actual 5, forecast 5.3, prev 5.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.3
Economic release
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): Actual 3.3, forecast 3.6, prev 3.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Personal Spending: 0.9
Economic release
Personal Spending: Actual 0.9, forecast 0.8, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Income (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Personal Income (MoM): Actual 0.2, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.1
Economic release
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: Actual 6.1, forecast 6.4%, prev 6.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 2.2
Economic release
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: Actual 2.2, forecast 1.5, prev 1.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.4
Economic release
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.4, forecast 3.7, prev 3.7. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.3
Economic release
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.3, forecast 0.4, prev 0.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3
Economic release
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): Actual 3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Goods Trade Balance: -132.6B
Economic release
Goods Trade Balance: Actual -132.6B, forecast -108.5B, prev -119.6B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 8.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Wholesale Inventories: 0.7
Economic release
Wholesale Inventories: Actual 0.7, forecast 1.1, prev 1.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
ADP Employment Change: 90K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change: Actual 90K, forecast 70K, prev 38K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $11.4B (+$10.6B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-29: 3.88% (prior 3.90%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-29: $11.4B (prior day $0.9B).
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 3.3
Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 3.3, forecast 3.1, prev 2.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.3
Economic release
Germany · Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.3, prev 2.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
Germany · Consumer Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.5, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.5, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.0%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -6.0%, prev -1.5%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
Economic release
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: Actual 6.4, forecast 6.4, prev 6.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Germany · Unemployment Change: 12K
Economic release
Germany · Unemployment Change: Actual 12K, forecast 5K, prev 4K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): 1.3
Economic release
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev -3.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): -0.4
Economic release
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): Actual -0.4, prev -2.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.4
Economic release
UK · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): Actual 1.4, forecast 1.2, prev 1.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.5
Economic release
UK · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): Actual 0.5, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: 1
Economic release
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: Actual 1, prev 1.4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
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