Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-12.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92, forecast 333.99, prev 333.95. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.79, prev 336.06. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.5%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.10%, prev -0.40%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.5%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.6%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.00%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92%, forecast 333.99%, prev 333.95%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-11: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-11: $1.2B (prior day $1.0B).
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 3.6%, prev -2.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 9.07M, forecast -0.50M, prev 2.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.06M, forecast 4.05M, prev 4.09M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-11.
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 8.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 8K, prev 15K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-10: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-10: $1.0B (prior day $1.4B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1.5, prev 1.7. BELOW FORECAST. Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.3%, prev 3.7%. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-10.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-07: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-07: $1.4B (prior day $1.4B).
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 0.9, prev -3.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
JP: Current Account n.s.a. — Actual -92.3B, forecast 1,512.0B, prev 3,968.3B. BELOW FORECAST · -6.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 112K, prev 120K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -27K, prev -17K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 198K, prev 182K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Credit Change — Actual 14.2B, forecast 10.5B, prev -0.2B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 454, forecast 452, prev 451. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-07.
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9%, prev 7.9%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.4%, prev 61.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual -23K, forecast 80K, prev 57K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.2%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-06: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-06: $1.4B (prior day $1.6B).
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