ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Trade Balance s.a.: 15.4B
DE: Trade Balance s.a. — Actual 15.4B, forecast 17.4B, prev 19.1B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$10.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-05: $6,748,567M, vs $6,738,190M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.8% (was 5.9%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.83%, revised from 5.86%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 33.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 33.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 28.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-06.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories: 0.2
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 203K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (YoY): 0.7
EU: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.7, forecast 1, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (MoM): -0.3
EU: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unit Labor Costs: 1.3
Unit Labor Costs — Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4
Nonfarm Productivity — Actual 1.4, forecast 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 199K, forecast 202K, prev 197K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.6B (-$0.6B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-05: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-05: $1.6B (prior day $2.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Challenger Job Cuts: 33K
Challenger Job Cuts — Actual 33K, prev 46K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 6.5
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) — Actual 6.5, prev 6.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): 3.1
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) — Actual 3.1, forecast 0.3, prev 1.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.48M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.48M, forecast -1.50M, prev -7.17M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-05.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.3
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 70.3, prev 67.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services New Orders Index: 57.2
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 57.2, prev 55.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Employment Index: 47.4
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 47.4, prev 51.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services PMI: 54.1
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 54.5, prev 54. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI: 54.5
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 54.5, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI: 54.6
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 54.6, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change: 44K
ADP Employment Change — Actual 44K, forecast 70K, prev 98K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.3B (+$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-04: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-04: $2.3B (prior day $2.1B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.9%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.9%, prev -6.4%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.6
EU: Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.6, forecast 4.6, prev 5.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.3
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast -0.3, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: HCOB Composite PMI: 52
EU: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52, forecast 51.9, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: HCOB Services PMI: 49.8
DE: HCOB Services PMI — Actual 49.8, forecast 49.6, prev 49.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: HCOB Composite PMI: 51.3
DE: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51.3, forecast 51.2, prev 51.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): 3.4
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.4, prev 3.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 2.69M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 2.69M, forecast -2.00M, prev 3.30M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.9% (was 6.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.86%, revised from 6.18%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-04.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Factory Orders (MoM): -0.3
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.36M
JOLTS Job Openings — Actual 7.36M, forecast 7.40M, prev 7.59M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.7
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.7, prev 8.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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