ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods and Services Trade Balance: -73.3B
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual -73.3B, forecast -73.0B, prev -77.6B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-03: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-03: $2.1B (prior day $2.2B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 6.2% (was 5.0%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 6.18%, revised from 4.95%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-03.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 71.1
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid — Actual 71.1, forecast 70.3, prev 73. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 56.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index — Actual 56.7, prev 56.0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 52.8
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index — Actual 52.8, prev 49.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI — Actual 55.6, forecast 54, prev 53.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.9
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.9, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-31: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-31: $2.2B (prior day $1.1B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.2
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.2, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Retail Sales (YoY): -0.2
DE: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Retail Sales (MoM): -1.1
DE: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -1.1, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 120K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 120K, prev 82K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -17K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -17K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 182K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 182K, prev 184K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 451
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 451, prev 450. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-07-31.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.2, forecast 4.2, prev 4.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 55.4
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 55.4, forecast 54, prev 54. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 55.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 55.2, forecast 54, prev 54.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.6σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago PMI: 57.6
Chicago PMI — Actual 57.6, forecast 56, prev 56.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Employment Cost Index: 0.9
Employment Cost Index — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.8, prev 0.9. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.1B (-$1.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-30: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-30: $1.1B (prior day $2.6B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.4, prev 2.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0
EU: Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
EU: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
DE: Unemployment Rate s.a. — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Unemployment Change: 6K
DE: Unemployment Change — Actual 6K, forecast 5K, prev -1K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 1
BoJ Interest Rate Decision — Actual 1, forecast 1, prev 1. ON THE SCREWS. JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2
JP: Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2
JP: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, -$9.2B w/w — QT run-off continues
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-29: $6,738,190M, vs $6,747,378M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.0% (prior quarter 1.5%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.95%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 28.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 28.0B, forecast 35.0B, prev 32.0B. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-07-30.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Advance GDP q/q: +1.5%
Advance GDP q/q — Actual +1.5%, forecast 2.1%, prev 2.0%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5.1
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) — Actual 5.1, prev 4.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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