Unemployment Rate: Release Dates, Results & History
Unemployment Rate last printed 4.1% on Fri, Aug 7, 2026 against a 4.2% consensus forecast and a 4.2% prior, a -0.77 standard-deviation surprise. The next release is Friday, September 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
The unemployment rate comes from the household survey and can diverge sharply from payrolls. When it does, the rate usually wins the narrative. It's the input to Sahm-rule recession triggers and the Fed's dual mandate. A 0.2pp rise gets more airtime than a 100k payroll miss.
The trend, at a glance
How it moves Treasuries
A higher-than-expected unemployment rate is bullish Treasuries: labor slack means the Fed cuts sooner. Even a tenth above consensus can rally the front end hard when the market is primed for easing. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | -0.77 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.77 | BELOW FORECAST |
The 2 most recent prints from the desk's live capture (began July 2026), a sample. Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed; the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE (%) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | 4.2% | -0.1% | |
| 4.2% | 4.3% | -0.1% | |
| 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.0% | |
| 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.0% | |
| 4.3% | 4.4% | -0.1% | |
| 4.4% | 4.3% | +0.1% | |
| 4.3% | 4.4% | -0.1% | |
| 4.4% | 4.5% | -0.1% |
The most recent official rows; the chart above draws the longer series. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise the moment each number landed.
Related indicators
Monthly, first Friday with Nonfarm Payrolls · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.