Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
2-Year FRN auction: IN LINE. $28B on offer, B/C 3.14 (avg 3.19), indirect 66.6% (avg 62.8), direct 0.4% (avg 0.2), dealer 33.1% (avg 37.0). IN LINE demand, no directional read for …
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $72B on offer, B/C 3.09 (avg 3.14), high 3.750% (inv 3.850%), indirect 60.3% (avg 59.7), direct 7.1% (avg 6.5), dealer 32.6% (avg 33.7). IN…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.61%, revised from 4.03%.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.03M, prev -0.54M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual -2.54M, prev 0.69M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -2.23M, prev -1.53M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.10M, forecast 1.90M, prev 4.41M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-26.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.2%, prev 0.9%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 1.3, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev 0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.5, prev 0.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) — Actual 5.3, forecast 5.1, prev 5.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Spending — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.6, prev 3.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.1, prev -0.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.5, forecast 1.5, prev 1.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Personal Income (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Gross Domestic Product Price Index — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Prelim GDP q/q — Actual +1.5%, forecast 1.5%, prev 1.5%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral …
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral …
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-25: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-25: $0.4B (prior day $0.4B).
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -1.0%, prev -0.4%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
If ceasefire is agreed further, then this will take war premium out the market, if we get a weak PCE number, and a weak NFP report then hike bets will start to be pushed out till M…
Treasuries (close 2026-08-24): 2s 4.24% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-24): VIX 15.85, 2s10s +46bp. Narrative: Canadian Dollar remains depress…
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 4.20M, forecast 1.90M, prev -0.33M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
2-Year Note auction: IN LINE. $69B on offer, B/C 2.60 (avg 2.61), high 4.204%, stopped through 0.4bp, indirect 66.0% (avg 56.9), direct 23.1% (avg 30.2), dealer 10.9% (avg 13.0). I…
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE. $95B on offer, B/C 2.71 (avg 2.90), high 3.650% (inv 3.717%), indirect 65.2% (avg 69.0), direct 1.7% (avg 3.4), dealer 33.1% (avg 27.5). IN LINE deman…
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-25.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — Actual 4, forecast 7, prev 5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.61M, forecast 0.62M, prev 0.63M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Confidence — Actual 89.4, forecast 90.3, prev 90.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) — Actual 2.1, forecast 1.7, prev 1.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Housing Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 9.1, prev 7.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 12K, prev 10K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-24: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-24: $0.4B (prior day $0.2B).
Germany · IFO – Expectations — Actual 89.1, forecast 87.5, prev 86.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
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