UK · Claimant Count Change: 30K
Economic release
UK · Claimant Count Change: Actual 30K, forecast 19K, prev 28K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
UK · Employment Change (3M): 102K
Economic release
UK · Employment Change (3M): Actual 102K, prev 67K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.7
Economic release
UK · Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): Actual 3.7, forecast 3.8, prev 3.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.7
Economic release
UK · Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): Actual 3.7, forecast 3.6, prev 3.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 6.7
Economic release
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 6.7, prev 4.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.9
Economic release
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.9, forecast 0.8, prev 1.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.7 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
IRGC Spokesman: Tehran has not yet completely closed the Strait of Hor, 10s -1bp · Mon 19 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-16): 2s 4.74% (-3.0bp), 10s 5.09% (-1.0bp), 30s 5.43% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-16): VIX 19.99, 2s10s +35bp.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $82B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 2.74), high 4.220% (inv 4.372%), indirect 65.6% (avg 61.6), direct 10.8% (avg 9.5), dealer 23.6% (avg 28.9).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.77 (avg 2.70), high 4.095% (inv 4.195%), indirect 60.5% (avg 56.0), direct 8.0% (avg 7.5), dealer 31.5% (avg 36.6).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 5.0% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.3% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 5.0%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.3%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-19.
NAHB Housing Market Index: 29
Economic release
NAHB Housing Market Index: Actual 29, forecast 32, prev 32. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$1.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-16: 3.88% (prior 3.89%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-16: $0.1B (prior day $1.2B).
Week ahead: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Friday, S&P Global Services PMI Friday · US data & auctions, w/c 19 Oct 2026
Daily brief
The week of Monday 19 October 2026 has 24 scheduled US events, 2 high-impact, 12 Treasury auctions.
Oil Tops $110 for First Time Since May as Supply Risk Grows, 10s -9bp · Fri 16 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-15): 2s 4.77% (-5.0bp), 10s 5.1% (-9.0bp), 30s 5.43% (-9.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-15): VIX 16.46, 2s10s +33bp.
Total Net TIC Flows: 199.8B
Economic release
Total Net TIC Flows: Actual 199.8B, prev 83.7B. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 279.2B
Economic release
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: Actual 279.2B, forecast 75.2B, prev -27.9B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 100K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 100K, prev 99K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -141K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -141K, prev -154K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 208K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 208K, prev 210K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Monthly Budget Statement: -27.0B
Economic release
Monthly Budget Statement: Actual -27.0B, forecast -29.0B, prev -166.8B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 459
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 459, prev 462. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.8% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.8%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-16.
Capacity Utilization: 76.9
Economic release
Capacity Utilization: Actual 76.9, forecast 76.5, prev 76.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Import Price Index (YoY): 8.1%
Economic release
Import Price Index (YoY): Actual 8.1%, prev 7.0%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Export Price Index (YoY): 11.6%
Economic release
Export Price Index (YoY): Actual 11.6%, prev 8.6%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Export Price Index (MoM): 2.2%
Economic release
Export Price Index (MoM): Actual 2.2%, forecast 1.0%, prev 0.6%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): 1.1%
Economic release
Import Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.1%, forecast 0.8%, prev 0.7%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.89% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.2B (+$1.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-15: 3.89% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-15: $1.2B (prior day $0.2B).
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.6, prev 0.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
United States producer inflation jumps 6.3% in September vs. 5.3% expe, 10s -2bp · Thu 15 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-14): 2s 4.82% (+3.0bp), 10s 5.19% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.52% (-4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-14): VIX 16.87, 2s10s +37bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.76T, +$8.1B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-10-14: $6,755,639M, vs $6,747,560M the prior week.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.45M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual -0.45M, prev 0.67M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 3.52M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual 3.52M, prev 0.38M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -8.56M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual -8.56M, forecast -0.30M, prev -3.19M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -2.53M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual -2.53M, prev -0.04M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.6% (was 3.6%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.64%, revised from 3.59%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: WEAK
Treasury auction
. $105B on offer, B/C 2.26 (avg 2.83), high 4.050% (inv 4.132%), indirect 46.9% (avg 64.1), direct 5.7% (avg 5.8), dealer 47.4% (avg 30.1). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.56 (avg 2.77), high 4.000% (inv 4.068%), indirect 63.3% (avg 62.8), direct 5.8% (avg 4.1), dealer 30.9% (avg 33.1).
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