Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: 98.4
Economic release
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator — Actual 98.4, forecast 97.5, prev 96.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
Economic release
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -15.5, prev -15.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a.: 6.4
Economic release
Germany · Unemployment Rate s.a. — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.4, prev 6.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Unemployment Change: 4K
Economic release
Germany · Unemployment Change — Actual 4K, forecast 5K, prev 6K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
Economic release
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.7, prev 1.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 2
Economic release
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.9
Economic release
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 1.9, prev 2. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Unemployment Rate: 2.4
Economic release
Japan · Unemployment Rate — Actual 2.4, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: 1.18
Economic release
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio — Actual 1.18, forecast 1.19, prev 1.18. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Fed-Treasury ‘Regime Change’ May Fuel Bond Rally, Citrini Says, 10s +2bp · desk brief, Thu 27 Aug 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-26): 2s 4.19% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.66% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.18% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-26): VIX 15.21, 2s10s +47bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.73T, -$14.8B w/w — QT run-off continues
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-26: $6,730,912M, vs $6,745,699M the prior week.
7-Year Note auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $44B on offer, B/C 2.50 (avg 2.49), high 4.512%, on the screws, indirect 60.8% (avg 65.1), direct 27.0% (avg 23.1), dealer 12.3% (avg 11.8).
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $90B on offer, B/C 2.77 (avg 2.76), high 3.670% (inv 3.742%), indirect 57.3% (avg 58.0), direct 3.4% (avg 4.6), dealer 39.3% (avg 37.4).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.73 (avg 2.74), high 3.650% (inv 3.711%), indirect 66.0% (avg 60.4), direct 2.5% (avg 4.9), dealer 31.5% (avg 34.7).
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 17
Economic release
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 17. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 15.0B
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 15.0B, forecast 19.0B, prev 16.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-27.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.78M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.78M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.80M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Wholesale Inventories: 1.3
Economic release
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 1.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 4.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods Trade Balance: -118.8B
Economic release
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -118.8B, forecast -99.0B, prev -102.1B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 6.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 206K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 206K, prev 204K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 203K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 203K, forecast 208K, prev 206K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (+$0.3B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-26: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-26: $0.7B (prior day $0.4B).
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: -26.6
Economic release
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey — Actual -26.6, forecast -29.6, prev -29.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2, 10s -6bp · desk brief, Wed 26 Aug 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-25): 2s 4.17% (-7.0bp), 10s 4.64% (-6.0bp), 30s 5.17% (-6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-25): VIX 15.45, 2s10s +47bp.
5-Year Note auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $70B on offer, B/C 2.37 (avg 2.32), high 4.393%, tailed 0.2bp, indirect 61.5% (avg 65.4), direct 28.4% (avg 21.2), dealer 10.0% (avg 13.4).
2-Year FRN auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $28B on offer, B/C 3.14 (avg 3.19), indirect 66.6% (avg 62.8), direct 0.4% (avg 0.2), dealer 33.1% (avg 37.0). IN LINE demand, no directional read for bonds.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $72B on offer, B/C 3.09 (avg 3.14), high 3.750% (inv 3.850%), indirect 60.3% (avg 59.7), direct 7.1% (avg 6.5), dealer 32.6% (avg 33.7).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.6% (was 4.0%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.61%, revised from 4.03%.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.03M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.03M, prev -0.54M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -2.54M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual -2.54M, prev 0.69M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -2.23M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -2.23M, prev -1.53M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 0.10M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.10M, forecast 1.90M, prev 4.41M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-26.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 0.2%
Economic release
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.2%, prev 0.9%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 1.3
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 1.3, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders: 1.1
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev 0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.4
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.5, prev 0.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5.3
Economic release
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) — Actual 5.3, forecast 5.1, prev 5.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Spending: 0.2
Economic release
Personal Spending — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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