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Latest desk notes

US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK

Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.7

Economic release
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.6, prev 3.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2

Economic release
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.1, prev -0.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.5

Economic release
Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.5, forecast 1.5, prev 1.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.7

Economic release
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Personal Income (MoM): 0.4

Economic release
Personal Income (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.

Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.4

Economic release
Gross Domestic Product Price Index — Actual 6.4, forecast 6.3, prev 6.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Prelim GDP q/q: +1.5%

Economic release
Prelim GDP q/q — Actual +1.5%, forecast 1.5%, prev 1.5%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.3

Economic release
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2

Economic release
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.0B d/d)

Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-25: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-25: $0.4B (prior day $0.4B).

MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.0%

Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -1.0%, prev -0.4%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

US-Iran agree ceasefire deal, sinks Oil 🛢️🛢️

Desk note

US Treasury yields fall as Hormuz progress eases inflation fears, 10s -4bp · desk brief, Tue 25 Aug 2026

Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-24): 2s 4.24% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-24): VIX 15.85, 2s10s +46bp.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 4.20M

Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 4.20M, forecast 1.90M, prev -0.33M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

2-Year Note auction: IN LINE

Treasury auction
. $69B on offer, B/C 2.60 (avg 2.61), high 4.204%, stopped through 0.4bp, indirect 66.0% (avg 56.9), direct 23.1% (avg 30.2), dealer 10.9% (avg 13.0).

6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE

Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.71 (avg 2.90), high 3.650% (inv 3.717%), indirect 65.2% (avg 69.0), direct 1.7% (avg 3.4), dealer 33.1% (avg 27.5).

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%

Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-25.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 4

Economic release
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — Actual 4, forecast 7, prev 5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

New Home Sales (MoM): 0.61M

Economic release
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.61M, forecast 0.62M, prev 0.63M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.

Consumer Confidence: 89.4

Economic release
Consumer Confidence — Actual 89.4, forecast 90.3, prev 90.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 2.1

Economic release
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) — Actual 2.1, forecast 1.7, prev 1.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Housing Price Index (MoM): 0

Economic release
Housing Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.

Redbook Index (YoY): 9.1

Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 9.1, prev 7.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12K

Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 12K, prev 10K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.

Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.2B d/d)

Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-24: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-24: $0.4B (prior day $0.2B).

Germany · IFO – Expectations: 89.1

Economic release
Germany · IFO – Expectations — Actual 89.1, forecast 87.5, prev 86.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.

Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: 88.5

Economic release
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment — Actual 88.5, forecast 87, prev 86.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.

Germany · IFO – Business Climate: 88.8

Economic release
Germany · IFO – Business Climate — Actual 88.8, forecast 87.2, prev 86.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.

Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY): 1

Economic release
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) — Actual 1, prev 0.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.

Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1

Economic release
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.

Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3

Economic release
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.

TRUMP'S NEW 50% TARIFFS ON CANADA! 😱 #shorts, 10s +5bp · desk brief, Mon 24 Aug 2026

Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-21): 2s 4.24% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.74% (+5.0bp), 30s 5.27% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-21): VIX 15.13, 2s10s +50bp.

26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE

Treasury auction
. $79B on offer, B/C 3.05 (avg 2.99), high 3.790% (inv 3.918%), indirect 60.2% (avg 60.2), direct 11.2% (avg 9.9), dealer 28.6% (avg 29.9).

13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE

Treasury auction
. $92B on offer, B/C 3.08 (avg 2.88), high 3.715% (inv 3.803%), indirect 59.2% (avg 57.4), direct 8.0% (avg 6.8), dealer 32.9% (avg 35.8).

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%

Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-24.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.08

Economic release
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.08, prev -0.02. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.0B d/d)

Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-21: 3.65% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-21: $0.2B (prior day $0.2B).

Week ahead: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index Wednesday, Prelim GDP q/q Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 24 Aug 2026

Daily brief
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 24 August 2026 — 42 scheduled US events, 7 high-impact, 10 Treasury auctions.

S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8, 10s +4bp · desk brief, Fri 21 Aug 2026

Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-20): 2s 4.19% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.69% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.23% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-20): VIX 16.01, 2s10s +50bp.

CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 122K

Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 122K, prev 99K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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