Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.5
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.7
Personal Income (MoM): 0.4
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: 6.4
Prelim GDP q/q: +1.5%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 3.3
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.2
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.0B d/d)
MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.0%
US-Iran agree ceasefire deal, sinks Oil 🛢️🛢️
US Treasury yields fall as Hormuz progress eases inflation fears, 10s -4bp · desk brief, Tue 25 Aug 2026
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 4.20M
2-Year Note auction: IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 4
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.61M
Consumer Confidence: 89.4
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 2.1
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0
Redbook Index (YoY): 9.1
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12K
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.2B d/d)
Germany · IFO – Expectations: 89.1
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: 88.5
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: 88.8
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY): 1
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3
TRUMP'S NEW 50% TARIFFS ON CANADA! 😱 #shorts, 10s +5bp · desk brief, Mon 24 Aug 2026
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.08
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.0B d/d)
Week ahead: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index Wednesday, Prelim GDP q/q Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 24 Aug 2026
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8, 10s +4bp · desk brief, Fri 21 Aug 2026
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 122K
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