CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -11K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -11K, prev 11K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 222K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 222K, prev 218K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 456, prev 455. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-21.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
Economic release
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -16.3, prev -15.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8
Economic release
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 56.8, forecast 54, prev 54.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.2
Economic release
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.2, forecast 53.9, prev 53.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 56
Economic release
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 56, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-20: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-20: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: 52.8
Economic release
UK · S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 52.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.5
Economic release
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 51.5, forecast 51.5, prev 51.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: 52.5
Economic release
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 52.5, forecast 51.6, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.8
Economic release
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 51.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: 51.7
Economic release
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 51.7, forecast 51.5, prev 51.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 52.1
Economic release
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52.1, forecast 51.7, prev 52. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 48.5
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 48.5, forecast 50.1, prev 49.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.8 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 54.1
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 52, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 51
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51, forecast 51.3, prev 51.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY): 2.3
Economic release
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) — Actual 2.3, forecast 3.3, prev 5.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM): -0.9
Economic release
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) — Actual -0.9, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales (YoY): 1.6
Economic release
UK · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1.6, forecast 2.2, prev 4.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Retail Sales (MoM): -0.5
Economic release
UK · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.5, forecast -0.5, prev 1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.8
Economic release
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 1.8, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
Economic release
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.8, prev 1.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2
Economic release
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: -14
Economic release
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual -14, forecast -18, prev -17. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Dow plunges 700 points as surging Treasury yields, Walmart sales shock, 10s -6bp · desk brief, Thu 20 Aug 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-08-19): 2s 4.19% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.65% (-6.0bp), 30s 5.19% (-9.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-19): VIX 14.89, 2s10s +46bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, -$14.3B w/w — QT run-off continues
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-19: $6,745,699M, vs $6,759,955M the prior week.
30-Year TIPS auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $8B on offer, B/C 2.82 (avg 2.58), high 2.973%, stopped through 1.8bp, indirect 84.4% (avg 75.6), direct 13.4% (avg 18.7), dealer 2.1% (avg 5.7). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $100B on offer, B/C 3.06 (avg 2.74), high 3.655% (inv 3.727%), indirect 66.7% (avg 59.3), direct 2.7% (avg 4.9), dealer 30.7% (avg 35.8). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 2.71), high 3.640% (inv 3.701%), indirect 65.5% (avg 58.9), direct 3.3% (avg 5.1), dealer 31.3% (avg 35.9).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 16.0B
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 16.0B, forecast 17.0B, prev 36.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 2.9%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-20.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 47.4
Economic release
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 47.4, forecast 25, prev 41.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 204K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 204K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 206K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 206K, forecast 210K, prev 209K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-19: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-19: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 3
Economic release
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3, forecast 2.7, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1
Economic release
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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