ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: 88.5
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment — Actual 88.5, forecast 87, prev 86.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: 88.8
Germany · IFO – Business Climate — Actual 88.8, forecast 87.2, prev 86.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY): 1
Germany · Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) — Actual 1, prev 0.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.3
Germany · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DAILY BRIEF
TRUMP'S NEW 50% TARIFFS ON CANADA! 😱 #shorts, 10s +5bp · desk brief, Mon 24 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-21): 2s 4.24% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.74% (+5.0bp), 30s 5.27% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-21): VIX 15.13, 2s10s +50bp. Narrative: Bessent's sweeping sanctions a…
TREASURY AUCTION
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $79B on offer, B/C 3.05 (avg 2.99), high 3.790% (inv 3.918%), indirect 60.2% (avg 60.2), direct 11.2% (avg 9.9), dealer 28.6% (avg 29.9). I…
TREASURY AUCTION
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $92B on offer, B/C 3.08 (avg 2.88), high 3.715% (inv 3.803%), indirect 59.2% (avg 57.4), direct 8.0% (avg 6.8), dealer 32.9% (avg 35.8). IN…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-24.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.08
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.08, prev -0.02. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-21: 3.65% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-21: $0.2B (prior day $0.2B).
DAILY BRIEF
Week ahead: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index Wednesday, Prelim GDP q/q Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 24 Aug 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 24 August 2026 — 42 scheduled US events, 7 high-impact, 10 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 15:30 UTC 13-Week Bill Auction · $92B • 15:30 UTC 26-…
DAILY BRIEF
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8, 10s +4bp · desk brief, Fri 21 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-20): 2s 4.19% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.69% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.23% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-20): VIX 16.01, 2s10s +50bp. Narrative: St. Louis Fed's Musalem would …
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 122K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 122K, prev 99K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -11K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -11K, prev 11K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 222K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 222K, prev 218K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 456, prev 455. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 2.9%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-21.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -15.5
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence — Actual -15.5, forecast -16.3, prev -15.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 56.8, forecast 54, prev 54.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.2, forecast 53.9, prev 53.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI: 56
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 56, prev 54.5. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-20: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-20: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: 52.8
UK · S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 52.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.5
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 51.5, forecast 51.5, prev 51.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: 52.5
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 52.5, forecast 51.6, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.8
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.8, forecast 51.8, prev 51.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: 51.7
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 51.7, forecast 51.5, prev 51.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 52.1
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52.1, forecast 51.7, prev 52. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 48.5
Germany · HCOB Services PMI — Actual 48.5, forecast 50.1, prev 49.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.8 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 54.1
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 52, prev 52.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 51
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51, forecast 51.3, prev 51.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY): 2.3
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) — Actual 2.3, forecast 3.3, prev 5.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM): -0.9
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) — Actual -0.9, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (YoY): 1.6
UK · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1.6, forecast 2.2, prev 4.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (MoM): -0.5
UK · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.5, forecast -0.5, prev 1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.8
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 1.8, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 1.8
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 1.8, forecast 1.8, prev 1.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2, prev 1.7. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: -14
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence — Actual -14, forecast -18, prev -17. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
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