EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 67.0B
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Actual 67.0B, forecast 76.0B, prev 85.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.8% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.8%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-15.
Business Inventories: 0.4
Economic release
Business Inventories: Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.8. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales (YoY): 6.3
Economic release
Retail Sales (YoY): Actual 6.3, prev 6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.71M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual 1.71M, prev 1.72M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales Control Group: 0.10%
Economic release
Retail Sales Control Group: Actual 0.10%, prev 1.40%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): 0.9
Economic release
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): Actual 0.9, forecast 0.5, prev 1.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 5.0%
Economic release
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): Actual 5.0%, forecast 4.4%, prev 4.6%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index (YoY): 6.3%
Economic release
Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 6.3%, forecast 5.3%, prev 5.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 5.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 20.9
Economic release
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: Actual 20.9, forecast 28.4, prev 37.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): 0.8
Economic release
Retail Sales (MoM): Actual 0.8, forecast 0.3, prev 1.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.30%
Economic release
Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.30%, forecast 0.50%, prev 0.40%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 5.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.70%
Economic release
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): Actual 0.70%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.20%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 198K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: Actual 198K, prev 198K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 25.5
Economic release
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: Actual 25.5, forecast 10.3, prev 7.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 199K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 199K, forecast 200K, prev 197K. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-14: 3.88% (prior 3.89%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-14: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.1
Economic release
UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM): Actual 0.1, forecast -0.1, prev 0.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
10-year Treasury yield jumps as September core inflation comes in hott · Wed 14 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-13): 2s 4.79%, 10s 5.21%, 30s 5.56%. Tape (close 2026-10-13): VIX 15.27, 2s10s +42bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -11.10M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual -11.10M, forecast 1.90M, prev -2.10M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 4.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $75B on offer, B/C 2.79 (avg 2.84), high 4.195% (inv 4.313%), indirect 54.2% (avg 53.3), direct 8.0% (avg 7.7), dealer 37.8% (avg 38.9).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.8% · core CPI 3.0% · PCE 4.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.8%, core CPI 3.0%, PCE 4.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-10-14.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 336.94
Economic release
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): Actual 336.94, forecast 336.65, prev 334.98. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 338.90
Economic release
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: Actual 338.90, prev 337.76. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.30%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.30%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.7%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 3.7%, forecast 3.6%, prev 3.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.60%
Economic release
Consumer Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.60%, forecast 0.60%, prev 0.40%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Money markets: SOFR 3.89% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-13: 3.89% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-13: $0.3B (prior day $0.3B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -2.7%, prev -4.2%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Fed’s Collins signals further rate hikes likely as inflation risks per, 10s +2bp · Tue 13 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-09): 2s 4.8% (+5.0bp), 10s 5.24% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.6% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-09): VIX 15.21, 2s10s +44bp.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.58 (avg 2.93), high 3.980% (inv 4.055%), indirect 65.2% (avg 66.4), direct 3.2% (avg 4.1), dealer 31.7% (avg 29.5).
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $82B on offer, B/C 2.76 (avg 2.72), high 4.200% (inv 4.351%), indirect 66.3% (avg 58.5), direct 10.5% (avg 9.3), dealer 23.2% (avg 32.2).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.68 (avg 2.71), high 4.085% (inv 4.185%), indirect 59.6% (avg 54.7), direct 7.2% (avg 7.5), dealer 33.2% (avg 37.8).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.5% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 4.1% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.5%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 4.1%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-13.
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 3.99M
Economic release
Existing Home Sales (MoM): Actual 3.99M, forecast 3.95M, prev 3.98M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM): 1.5
Economic release
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM): Actual 1.5, prev -2. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 10.4
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY): Actual 10.4, prev 8.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 25K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: Actual 25K, prev 24K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-09: 3.87% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-09: $0.3B (prior day $0.3B).
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