Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-19): 2s 4.19% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.65% (-6.0bp), 30s 5.19% (-9.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-19): VIX 14.89, 2s10s +46bp. Narrative: Rick Scott: Trump will have to…
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-19: $6,745,699M, vs $6,759,955M the prior week.
30-Year TIPS auction: STRONG. $8B on offer, B/C 2.82 (avg 2.58), high 2.973%, stopped through 1.8bp, indirect 84.4% (avg 75.6), direct 13.4% (avg 18.7), dealer 2.1% (avg 5.7). STRO…
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $100B on offer, B/C 3.06 (avg 2.74), high 3.655% (inv 3.727%), indirect 66.7% (avg 59.3), direct 2.7% (avg 4.9), dealer 30.7% (avg 35.8). STR…
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $110B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 2.71), high 3.640% (inv 3.701%), indirect 65.5% (avg 58.9), direct 3.3% (avg 5.1), dealer 31.3% (avg 35.9). IN…
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 16.0B, forecast 17.0B, prev 36.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-20.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 47.4, forecast 25, prev 41.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 204K, prev 199K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 206K, forecast 210K, prev 209K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-19: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-19: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3, forecast 2.7, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance — Actual -686.0B, forecast -680.0B, prev -881.9B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Eq…
Japan · Imports (YoY) — Actual 27.8, forecast 26.5, prev 25.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Exports (YoY) — Actual 23.2, forecast 19.9, prev 19.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-18): 2s 4.19% (+0.0bp), 10s 4.71% (-1.0bp), 30s 5.28% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-18): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +46bp. Narrative: Rick Scott: Trump will have to…
20-Year Bond auction: IN LINE. $16B on offer, B/C 2.53 (avg 2.62), high 5.204%, tailed 0.5bp, indirect 62.9% (avg 66.7), direct 24.6% (avg 21.8), dealer 12.5% (avg 11.5). IN LINE d…
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $72B on offer, B/C 3.35 (avg 3.15), high 3.750% (inv 3.850%), indirect 60.8% (avg 61.2), direct 6.3% (avg 6.2), dealer 32.9% (avg 32.5). IN…
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.54M, prev 0.19M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual 0.69M, prev -0.97M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual -1.53M, prev -0.01M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 4.41M, forecast -0.60M, prev 17.42M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-19.
Treasury is buying back longer-dated bonds to support market liquidity, which eases funding conditions and supports the long end of the curve. Long end yields selling off on this m…
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-18: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-18: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -0.4%, prev 3.6%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0, prev 0. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral ·…
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.2, forecast 3.2, prev 3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 3.1, forecast 3.2, prev 3.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neu…
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 2.8, prev 2.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.6, prev 0.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.5, prev 2.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.3, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
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