NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.9
Economic release
NFIB Business Optimism Index: Actual 97.9, forecast 98, prev 98.7. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 3.3
Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, forecast 0.6, prev 0.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY): 6.8
Economic release
Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 6.8, forecast 7.6, prev 7.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.3
Economic release
Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual -0.3, forecast 0.5, prev -0.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.2 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 1
Economic release
UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): Actual 1, forecast 0.7, prev 0.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Fed's Hammack: There is more restraint that is needed; if monetary pol, 10s -6bp · Mon 12 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-08): 2s 4.75% (-2.0bp), 10s 5.22% (-6.0bp), 30s 5.6% (-7.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-08): VIX 14.84, 2s10s +44bp.
Week ahead: Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Wednesday, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 12 Oct 2026
Daily brief
The week of Monday 12 October 2026 has 30 scheduled US events, 10 high-impact, 6 Treasury auctions.
Fed’s Musalem says more rate hikes needed to reach 2% target, 10s -6bp · Fri 09 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-08): 2s 4.75% (-2.0bp), 10s 5.22% (-6.0bp), 30s 5.6% (-7.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-08): VIX 15.41, 2s10s +47bp.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 99K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 99K, prev 110K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -154K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -154K, prev -142K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 210K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 210K, prev 219K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 462
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 462, prev 456. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.4% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 4.0% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.4%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 4.0%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-09.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.5
Economic release
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: Actual 3.5, prev 3.4. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 47.3
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: Actual 47.3, prev 46.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.7
Economic release
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: Actual 4.7, prev 4.6. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 46.3
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Actual 46.3, forecast 47.6, prev 48.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$2.0B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-08: 3.87% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-08: $0.3B (prior day $2.3B).
Fed’s Musalem says tighter monetary policy needed to lower inflation, 10s +1bp · Thu 08 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-07): 2s 4.77% (-2.0bp), 10s 5.28% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.67% (+3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-07): VIX 15.08, 2s10s +51bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$4.5B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-10-07: $6,747,560M, vs $6,743,031M the prior week.
30-Year Bond auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $22B on offer, B/C 2.54 (avg 2.41), high 5.618%, on the screws, indirect 72.3% (avg 69.1), direct 20.9% (avg 20.6), dealer 6.8% (avg 10.3).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.6% (was 3.7%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.59%, revised from 3.68%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $105B on offer, B/C 2.77 (avg 2.83), high 3.980% (inv 4.060%), indirect 70.3% (avg 62.0), direct 6.3% (avg 5.3), dealer 23.4% (avg 32.7).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK
Treasury auction
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.40 (avg 2.83), high 3.980% (inv 4.048%), indirect 57.3% (avg 64.2), direct 6.1% (avg 3.5), dealer 36.6% (avg 32.3). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 85.0B
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Actual 85.0B, forecast 79.0B, prev 64.0B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.1% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.8% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.1%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.8%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-08.
Wholesale Inventories: 0.5
Economic release
Wholesale Inventories: Actual 0.5, forecast 0.7, prev 0.7. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.72M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual 1.72M, forecast 1.71M, prev 1.70M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 198K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: Actual 198K, prev 200K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 197K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 197K, forecast 200K, prev 197K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.3B (+$1.9B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-07: 3.88% (prior 3.90%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-07: $2.3B (prior day $0.4B).
Germany · Trade Balance s.a.: 19.5B
Economic release
Germany · Trade Balance s.a.: Actual 19.5B, forecast 19.0B, prev 21.3B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Current Account n.s.a.: 4,062.0B
Economic release
Japan · Current Account n.s.a.: Actual 4,062.0B, forecast 3,194.6B, prev 2,988.0B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Fed minutes show most policymakers see another rate hike by year end, 10s -4bp · Wed 07 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-06): 2s 4.79% (-5.0bp), 10s 5.27% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.64% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-06): VIX 15.01, 2s10s +48bp.
Consumer Credit Change: 8.3B
Economic release
Consumer Credit Change: Actual 8.3B, forecast 15.0B, prev 18.1B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
10-Year Note auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $39B on offer, B/C 2.77 (avg 2.54), high 5.300%, stopped through 1.7bp, indirect 80.3% (avg 74.1), direct 17.1% (avg 17.0), dealer 2.5% (avg 8.8). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $75B on offer, B/C 3.10 (avg 2.84), high 4.105% (inv 4.219%), indirect 59.7% (avg 53.4), direct 10.1% (avg 7.2), dealer 30.2% (avg 39.3). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.67M
Economic release
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual 0.67M, prev -0.62M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 0.38M
Economic release
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual 0.38M, prev -1.68M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
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