Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-17): 2s 4.19% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.72% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.31% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-17): VIX 15.19, 2s10s +53bp. Narrative: Trump Threatens Oman, Rejects …
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -0.33M, prev 9.07M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.03%, revised from 4.31%.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE. $95B on offer, B/C 2.97 (avg 2.86), high 3.645% (inv 3.711%), indirect 65.5% (avg 68.7), direct 4.7% (avg 3.1), dealer 29.7% (avg 28.2). IN LINE deman…
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-18.
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -2.2, prev -0.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual -2.3, forecast 0.3, prev -5.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.3, forecast 76.3, prev 76.1. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.6, prev 8.3. BELOW PRIOR. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.9%, prev 7.1%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2%, prev 10.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -4.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.44M, forecast 1.37M, prev 1.37M. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -1.3%, forecast 0.2%, prev -0.6%. BELOW FORECAST · -5.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.4%, forecast 0.1%, prev 0.3%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.24M, forecast 1.35M, prev 1.43M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 10K, prev 8K. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-17: 3.66% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-17: $0.3B (prior day $0.2B).
EU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 31.4, forecast 25.4, prev 23.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 34.2, forecast 30, prev 26.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: ZEW Survey – Current Situation — Actual -61.1, forecast -68.8, prev -77.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Claimant Count Rate — Actual 4.3, prev 4.4. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Claimant Count Change — Actual -11K, forecast 11K, prev 7K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.5σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Employment Change (3M) — Actual 83K, prev 147K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
GB: ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) — Actual 4.9, forecast 4.8, prev 4.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
GB: Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 4.1, forecast 4.1, prev 4.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.5, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-14): 2s 4.17% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.68% (+5.0bp), 30s 5.25% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-14): VIX 14.25, 2s10s +51bp. What mattered: • US Bond Selloff Drives 3…
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 133.5B, prev 132.2B. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 172.7B, forecast 151.4B, prev 232.7B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $79B on offer, B/C 2.97 (avg 3.01), high 3.780% (inv 3.907%), indirect 64.9% (avg 59.3), direct 10.5% (avg 9.8), dealer 24.6% (avg 30.9). I…
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $92B on offer, B/C 2.86 (avg 2.83), high 3.715% (inv 3.802%), indirect 53.8% (avg 56.6), direct 6.8% (avg 7.0), dealer 39.4% (avg 36.5). IN…
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-17.
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 35, forecast 33, prev 34. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 20.6, forecast 11, prev 15.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-14: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-14: $0.2B (prior day $0.5B).
JP: Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.4, prev 3.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
JP: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.5, prev 0.5. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
JP: Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.1, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. JGBs BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 17 August 2026 — 21 scheduled US events, 4 high-impact, 8 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 12:30 UTC NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (forecas…
Treasuries (close 2026-08-13): 2s 4.15% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.63% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.21% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-13): VIX 14.63, 2s10s +51bp. Narrative: Trump: Pretty soon will be dec…
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