EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -0.04M
Economic release
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual -0.04M, prev -2.25M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.19M
Economic release
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual -3.19M, forecast 1.90M, prev 0.92M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.1% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.9% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.1%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.9%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-07.
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Desk note
Money markets: SOFR 3.90% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (-$0.6B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-06: 3.90% (prior 3.89%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-06: $0.4B (prior day $1.0B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.2%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -4.2%, prev -6.0%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): 3.8
Economic release
Japan · Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): Actual 3.8, forecast 3.7, prev 4.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
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Desk note
Fed’s Schmid says more rate hikes needed despite higher yields, 10s +3bp · Tue 06 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-05): 2s 4.84% (+1.0bp), 10s 5.31% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.66% (+3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-05): VIX 15.52, 2s10s +47bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -2.10M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual -2.10M, prev 1.02M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
3-Year Note auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $58B on offer, B/C 2.62 (avg 2.65), high 4.932%, stopped through 0.2bp, indirect 57.6% (avg 65.9), direct 31.7% (avg 21.4), dealer 10.7% (avg 12.6).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.7% (was 3.7%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.68%, revised from 3.68%.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.78 (avg 2.92), high 3.945% (inv 4.018%), indirect 65.4% (avg 66.3), direct 4.0% (avg 3.8), dealer 30.6% (avg 30.0).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.1% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.8% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.1%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.8%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-06.
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): 46.8
Economic release
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM): Actual 46.8, forecast 44.5, prev 45.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.6
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY): Actual 8.6, prev 8.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Goods Trade Balance: -132.1B
Economic release
Goods Trade Balance: Actual -132.1B, prev -132.6B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Goods and Services Trade Balance: -105.6B
Economic release
Goods and Services Trade Balance: Actual -105.6B, forecast -102.0B, prev -88.6B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 24K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: Actual 24K, prev 20K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.89% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.0B (-$0.5B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-05: 3.89% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-05: $1.0B (prior day $1.5B).
Eurozone · Retail Sales (YoY): 0.8
Economic release
Eurozone · Retail Sales (YoY): Actual 0.8, forecast 1, prev 0.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · Retail Sales (MoM): 0.1
Economic release
Eurozone · Retail Sales (MoM): Actual 0.1, forecast 0.2, prev -0.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 2.7
Economic release
Germany · Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): Actual 2.7, prev 13.1. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Germany · Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): -10.6
Economic release
Germany · Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): Actual -10.6, forecast -1, prev 2.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 6.4 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Treasuries Slump Pushes Long-End Yields to Fresh 24-Year Highs, 10s +4bp · Mon 05 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-02): 2s 4.83% (+5.0bp), 10s 5.28% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.63% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-02): VIX 15.31, 2s10s +45bp.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $82B on offer, B/C 2.79 (avg 2.76), high 4.165% (inv 4.314%), indirect 63.2% (avg 58.0), direct 10.6% (avg 9.4), dealer 26.2% (avg 32.6).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: WEAK
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.51 (avg 2.81), high 4.050% (inv 4.149%), indirect 48.6% (avg 56.5), direct 7.2% (avg 7.6), dealer 44.2% (avg 35.9). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.0% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.8% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.0%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.8%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-05.
ISM Services Prices Paid: 74.0
Economic release
ISM Services Prices Paid: Actual 74.0, prev 72.6. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Services New Orders Index: 59.8
Economic release
ISM Services New Orders Index: Actual 59.8, prev 60.9. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Services Employment Index: 50.1
Economic release
ISM Services Employment Index: Actual 50.1, prev 47.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Services PMI: 54.9
Economic release
ISM Services PMI: Actual 54.9, forecast 55, prev 55.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 58.4
Economic release
S&P Global Composite PMI: Actual 58.4, forecast 58.4, prev 58.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
S&P Global Services PMI: 58.8
Economic release
S&P Global Services PMI: Actual 58.8, forecast 58.7, prev 58.7. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.88% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.5B (+$1.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-02: 3.88% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-02: $1.5B (prior day $0.3B).
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (YoY): 8.2
Economic release
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (YoY): Actual 8.2, prev 5.8. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.9
Economic release
Eurozone · Producer Price Index (MoM): Actual 1.9, forecast 1.9, prev 1.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence: 2.7
Economic release
Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence: Actual 2.7, prev 5.1. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 53.1
Economic release
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: Actual 53.1, forecast 53.1, prev 53.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 52.9
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: Actual 52.9, forecast 52.9, prev 52.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
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