Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: 53.8
Economic release
Germany · HCOB Composite PMI: Actual 53.8, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Week ahead: ISM Services PMI Monday, FOMC Minutes Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 05 Oct 2026
Daily brief
The week of Monday 05 October 2026 has 21 scheduled US events, 3 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions.
Nasdaq hits record high after weaker-than-expected US jobs report – bu, 10s -5bp · Fri 02 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-10-01): 2s 4.78% (-10.0bp), 10s 5.24% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.61% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-10-01): VIX 16.39, 2s10s +46bp.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 110K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 110K, prev 141K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 219K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 219K, prev 226K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -142K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -142K, prev -133K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 456
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 456, prev 455. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.0% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.8% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.0%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.8%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-02.
Factory Orders (MoM): 0.1
Economic release
Factory Orders (MoM): Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.6%
Economic release
U6 Underemployment Rate: Actual 7.6%, prev 7.7%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%
Economic release
Labor Force Participation Rate: Actual 61.8%, prev 61.6%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Average Weekly Hours: 34.4
Economic release
Average Weekly Hours: Actual 34.4, forecast 34.3, prev 34.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.0%
Economic release
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): Actual 3.0%, forecast 3.2%, prev 3.1%. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Unemployment Rate: 4.2%
Economic release
Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2%, forecast 4.1%, prev 4.1%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Nonfarm Payrolls: 29K
Economic release
Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 29K, forecast 90K, prev 162K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.10%
Economic release
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$11.2B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-10-01: 3.87% (prior 3.90%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-10-01: $0.3B (prior day $11.5B).
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.6, prev 0.4. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 3.8
Economic release
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 3.8, forecast 3.6, prev 3.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.5
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
Economic release
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 3
Economic release
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): Actual 3, prev 2. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 2.7
Economic release
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): Actual 2.7, forecast 2.4, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.7
Economic release
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 2.7, prev 1.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: 1.18
Economic release
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: Actual 1.18, forecast 1.18, prev 1.18. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Unemployment Rate: 2.5
Economic release
Japan · Unemployment Rate: Actual 2.5, forecast 2.4, prev 2.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Fed’s Kashkari keeps October open, still sees more hikes ahead, 10s +3bp · Thu 01 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-30): 2s 4.88% (-1.0bp), 10s 5.29% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.64% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-30): VIX 16.34, 2s10s +41bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, -$4.7B w/w — QT run-off continues
Economic release
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-30: $6,743,031M, vs $6,747,704M the prior week.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.70 (avg 2.90), high 3.990% (inv 4.071%), indirect 56.8% (avg 63.6), direct 7.1% (avg 4.6), dealer 36.1% (avg 31.8).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.83 (avg 2.83), high 3.890% (inv 3.956%), indirect 63.9% (avg 64.5), direct 4.8% (avg 3.3), dealer 31.4% (avg 32.2).
🚀 Helious moves out of beta next week and goes fully live 🚀
Desk note
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 64.0B
Economic release
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Actual 64.0B, forecast 64.0B, prev 53.0B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.2% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.9% · core PCE 3.1%
Economic release
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.2%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.9%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-01.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 54.5
Economic release
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Actual 54.5, forecast 55, prev 54.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 55.3
Economic release
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: Actual 55.3, prev 53.7. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 52.7
Economic release
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Actual 52.7, prev 51.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 77.9
Economic release
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: Actual 77.9, forecast 72.3, prev 71.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 55.9
Economic release
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 55.9, forecast 56.9, prev 57. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.70M
Economic release
Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual 1.70M, forecast 1.73M, prev 1.72M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 200K
Economic release
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: Actual 200K, prev 202K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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