Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
10-Year Note auction: IN LINE. $42B on offer, B/C 2.53 (avg 2.47), high 4.683%, on the screws (avg +0.3bp), indirect 76.7% (avg 71.3), direct 14.7% (avg 17.7), dealer 8.6% (avg 11.…
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $72B on offer, B/C 3.16 (avg 3.07), high 3.755% (inv 3.855%), indirect 62.3% (avg 60.0), direct 6.6% (avg 6.2), dealer 31.1% (avg 33.7). IN…
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 17.42M, forecast -1.40M, prev 2.48M. ABOVE FORECAST · +7.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 2.9%. Model update as of 2026-08-12.
This could be enough for the FED to hold, in September, we do have another bout of inflation data and job data prior to the meeting, but this is a good sign today that inflation da…
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92, forecast 333.99, prev 333.95. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.79, prev 336.06. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.5%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.10%, prev -0.40%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.5%, forecast 2.5%, prev 2.6%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.00%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.92%, forecast 333.99%, prev 333.95%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-11: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-11: $1.2B (prior day $1.0B).
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 3.6%, prev -2.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.9, forecast 0.9, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-10): 10s 4.72% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.25% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-10): VIX 15.46, 2s10s +47bp. Narrative: US military disables Panama-flagged tanker in vio…
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 9.07M, forecast -0.50M, prev 2.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
3-Year Note auction: STRONG. $58B on offer, B/C 2.71 (avg 2.60), high 4.291%, stopped through 0.5bp (avg +0.0bp), indirect 64.2% (avg 64.3), direct 24.0% (avg 21.7), dealer 11.7% (…
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE. $95B on offer, B/C 2.93 (avg 2.82), high 3.670% (inv 3.737%), indirect 71.3% (avg 68.3), direct 3.2% (avg 3.4), dealer 25.6% (avg 28.3). IN LINE deman…
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 4.06M, forecast 4.05M, prev 4.09M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-11.
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 8.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 8K, prev 15K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-10: 3.63% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-10: $1.0B (prior day $1.4B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 99.8, forecast 97.5, prev 97.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
GB: BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 1, forecast 1.5, prev 1.7. BELOW FORECAST. Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Treasuries (close 2026-08-07): 2s 4.19% (-6.0bp), 10s 4.65% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.19% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-07): VIX 14.9, 2s10s +46bp. Narrative: Europe Gas Prices Surge as Horm…
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $79B on offer, B/C 2.85 (avg 2.96), high 3.830% (inv 3.960%), indirect 54.5% (avg 59.6), direct 8.9% (avg 9.5), dealer 36.7% (avg 30.9). IN…
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $92B on offer, B/C 2.88 (avg 2.73), high 3.735% (inv 3.823%), indirect 57.2% (avg 53.9), direct 6.8% (avg 7.0), dealer 36.0% (avg 39.1). IN…
Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.3%, prev 3.7%. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-10.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-07: 3.62% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-07: $1.4B (prior day $1.4B).
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 0.9, prev -3.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
JP: Current Account n.s.a. — Actual -92.3B, forecast 1,512.0B, prev 3,968.3B. BELOW FORECAST · -6.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 10 August 2026 — 29 scheduled US events, 10 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 15:30 UTC 13-Week Bill Auction · $92B • 15:30 UTC 26-…
Treasuries (close 2026-08-06): 2s 4.25% (+7.0bp), 10s 4.69% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.22% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-06): VIX 15.15, 2s10s +44bp. Narrative: Gold price hits highest level …
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 112K, prev 120K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -27K, prev -17K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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