Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): 1.3
Economic release
Germany · Retail Sales (MoM): Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev -3.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): -0.4
Economic release
Germany · Retail Sales (YoY): Actual -0.4, prev -2.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 1.4
Economic release
UK · Gross Domestic Product (YoY): Actual 1.4, forecast 1.2, prev 1.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.5
Economic release
UK · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): Actual 0.5, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: 1
Economic release
Japan · Large Retailer Sales: Actual 1, prev 1.4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM): -1.2
Economic release
Japan · Retail Trade s.a (MoM): Actual -1.2, prev 2.4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY): 2.7
Economic release
Japan · Retail Trade (YoY): Actual 2.7, forecast 3.3, prev 4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Fed rate hike odds tumble to coin flip after Williams says no rush, 10s +7bp · Tue 29 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-28): 2s 4.92% (+11.0bp), 10s 5.24% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.56% (+7.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-28): VIX 16.07, 2s10s +32bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 1.02M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Actual 1.02M, prev 1.79M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
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52-Week (1-year) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $54B on offer, B/C 3.07 (avg 3.39), high 4.400% (inv 4.616%), indirect 70.9% (avg 66.5), direct 4.6% (avg 3.5), dealer 24.6% (avg 30.0).
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $85B on offer, B/C 2.82 (avg 2.94), high 3.970% (inv 4.044%), indirect 67.2% (avg 66.0), direct 5.1% (avg 3.7), dealer 27.8% (avg 30.3).
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.08M
Economic release
JOLTS Job Openings: Actual 7.08M, forecast 7.23M, prev 7.27M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Consumer Confidence: 81.9
Economic release
Consumer Confidence: Actual 81.9, forecast 89.2, prev 89.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 2.5
Economic release
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): Actual 2.5, forecast 2.2, prev 2.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0.3
Economic release
Housing Price Index (MoM): Actual 0.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.2
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY): Actual 8.2, prev 7.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Money markets: SOFR 3.90% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.9B (+$0.3B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-28: 3.90% (prior 3.90%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-28: $0.9B (prior day $0.6B).
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: 97.9
Economic release
Eurozone · Economic Sentiment Indicator: Actual 97.9, forecast 99, prev 98.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: -16.5
Economic release
Eurozone · Consumer Confidence: Actual -16.5, forecast -16.5, prev -16.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Business Climate: -0.06
Economic release
Eurozone · Business Climate: Actual -0.06, prev -0.23. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
U.S. 10 Year Treasury tops 5.25% as yields continue to climb, 10s -1bp · Mon 28 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-25): 2s 4.81% (-6.0bp), 10s 5.17% (-1.0bp), 30s 5.49% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-25): VIX 14.21, 2s10s +36bp.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $82B on offer, B/C 2.64 (avg 2.81), high 4.285% (inv 4.441%), indirect 60.3% (avg 58.8), direct 9.5% (avg 9.6), dealer 30.2% (avg 31.7).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: STRONG
Treasury auction
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.99 (avg 2.79), high 4.110% (inv 4.211%), indirect 66.6% (avg 54.4), direct 7.1% (avg 7.6), dealer 26.3% (avg 38.1). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: 9.8
Economic release
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: Actual 9.8, prev 11.6. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.90% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (-$0.1B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-25: 3.90% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-25: $0.6B (prior day $0.6B).
Week ahead: ADP Employment Change Wednesday, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 28 Sep 2026
Daily brief
The week of Monday 28 September 2026 has 37 scheduled US events, 9 high-impact, 7 Treasury auctions.
Germany · GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: -30.6, 10s +7bp · Fri 25 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-24): 2s 4.87% (+2.0bp), 10s 5.18% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.47% (+7.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-24): VIX 14.21, 2s10s +36bp.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 226K
Economic release
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: Actual 226K, prev 230K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -133K
Economic release
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: Actual -133K, prev -100K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 141K
Economic release
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: Actual 141K, prev 136K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.0% (was 5.1%)
Economic release
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.02%, revised from 5.08%.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 455
Economic release
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: Actual 455, forecast 453, prev 452. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.4
Economic release
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: Actual 3.4, forecast 3.4, prev 3.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.3
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: Actual 46.3, prev 45.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.6
Economic release
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: Actual 4.6, forecast 4.6, prev 4.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 48.1
Economic release
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Actual 48.1, forecast 47.6, prev 47.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 1.6%
Economic release
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: Actual 1.6%, forecast 0.5%, prev 0.2%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 0.1
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: Actual 0.1, prev 1.3. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.3
Economic release
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: Actual 0.3, forecast 0.6, prev 0.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
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