ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 198K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 198K, prev 182K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change: 14.2B
Consumer Credit Change — Actual 14.2B, forecast 10.5B, prev -0.2B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 454
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 454, forecast 452, prev 451. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-07.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9%
U6 Underemployment Rate — Actual 7.9%, prev 7.9%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.4%
Labor Force Participation Rate — Actual 61.4%, prev 61.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
Unemployment Rate — Actual 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls: -23K
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual -23K, forecast 80K, prev 57K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Weekly Hours: 34.3
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.2%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.10%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (-$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-06: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-06: $1.4B (prior day $1.6B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Trade Balance s.a.: 15.4B
DE: Trade Balance s.a. — Actual 15.4B, forecast 17.4B, prev 19.1B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
DAILY BRIEF
Eurozone June retail sales -0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected · desk brief, Thu 06 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-05): 2s 4.18% (-2.0bp), 10s 4.63% (+0.0bp), 30s 5.17% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-05): VIX 15.81, 2s10s +44bp. Narrative: Northern and Southern corridor…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$10.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-05: $6,748,567M, vs $6,738,190M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.8% (was 5.9%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.83%, revised from 5.86%.
TREASURY AUCTION
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $100B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 2.72), high 3.710% (inv 3.783%), indirect 54.4% (avg 62.7), direct 6.3% (avg 3.9), dealer 39.3% (avg 33.4). IN…
TREASURY AUCTION
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $110B on offer, B/C 2.68 (avg 2.71), high 3.640% (inv 3.701%), indirect 55.8% (avg 62.1), direct 4.0% (avg 4.4), dealer 40.1% (avg 33.5). IN…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 33.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 33.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 28.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-06.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories: 0.2
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 203K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (YoY): 0.7
EU: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.7, forecast 1, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (MoM): -0.3
EU: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unit Labor Costs: 1.3
Unit Labor Costs — Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4
Nonfarm Productivity — Actual 1.4, forecast 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: 199K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 199K, forecast 202K, prev 197K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.6B (-$0.6B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-05: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-05: $1.6B (prior day $2.3B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Challenger Job Cuts: 33K
Challenger Job Cuts — Actual 33K, prev 46K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 6.5
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) — Actual 6.5, prev 6.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): 3.1
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) — Actual 3.1, forecast 0.3, prev 1.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DAILY BRIEF
Fed Governor Cook says she's 'prepared to act' on rate hike to address, 10s -7bp · desk brief, Wed 05 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-04): 2s 4.2% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.63% (-7.0bp), 30s 5.18% (-5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-04): VIX 16.5, 2s10s +43bp. Narrative: Trump Says Strait of Hormuz Will…
TREASURY AUCTION
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG. $72B on offer, B/C 3.19 (avg 2.96), high 3.785% (inv 3.886%), indirect 64.6% (avg 58.4), direct 6.2% (avg 5.8), dealer 29.3% (avg 35.8). STR…
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.48M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.48M, forecast -1.50M, prev -7.17M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-05.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.3
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 70.3, prev 67.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services New Orders Index: 57.2
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 57.2, prev 55.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Employment Index: 47.4
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 47.4, prev 51.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services PMI: 54.1
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 54.5, prev 54. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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