Import Price Index (YoY): 7.0%
Economic release
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.0%, prev 5.9%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Retail Sales (YoY): 6
Economic release
Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 6, prev 5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Export Price Index (YoY): 8.6%
Economic release
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 8.6%, prev 8.2%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales Control Group: 1.40%
Economic release
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual 1.40%, prev -0.40%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): 1.4
Economic release
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual 1.4, forecast 0.5, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Export Price Index (MoM): 0.6%
Economic release
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6%, forecast 0.5%, prev -1.3%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): 0.7%
Economic release
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.7%, forecast 0.4%, prev -0.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): 1.2
Economic release
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 1.2, forecast 0.8, prev -0.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.7B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-15: 3.64% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-15: $0.7B (prior day $1.4B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.1%
Economic release
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -4.1%, prev -2.7%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY): 3.4
Economic release
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.5, prev 3.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM): 0.6
Economic release
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6, prev 0.6. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a: 3.7
Economic release
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.3, prev 3.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.7
Economic release
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.7, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a: 2.7
Economic release
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 2.7, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.3
Economic release
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.3, prev 0.6. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.6
Economic release
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.6, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.1
Economic release
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.1, forecast 3.1, prev 2.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.5
Economic release
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.5, forecast 0.5, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 7.14M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 7.14M, forecast -1.80M, prev -0.30M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Merchandise Trade Balance Total: -1,105.6B
Economic release
Japan · Merchandise Trade Balance Total — Actual -1,105.6B, forecast -1,052.6B, prev -634.5B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma.
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -840.6B
Economic release
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance — Actual -840.6B, forecast -1.00T, prev -686.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.8 sigma.
Japan · Imports (YoY): 28
Economic release
Japan · Imports (YoY) — Actual 28, forecast 26.3, prev 27.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Exports (YoY): 19.3
Economic release
Japan · Exports (YoY) — Actual 19.3, forecast 18.2, prev 23.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Iran war likely to drive up inflation next year, CBO says, 10s +1bp · Tue 15 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Treasuries (close 2026-09-14): 2s 4.65% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.97% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.34% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-14): VIX 17.1, 2s10s +32bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 7.1M
Economic release
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 7.1M, forecast -1.80M, prev -0.30M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
20-Year Bond auction: WEAK
Treasury auction
. $13B on offer, B/C 2.57 (avg 2.65), high 5.420%, tailed 2.0bp, indirect 52.5% (avg 68.0), direct 30.7% (avg 21.3), dealer 16.9% (avg 10.7). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Treasury auction
. $75B on offer, B/C 3.16 (avg 2.89), high 3.850% (inv 3.921%), indirect 68.8% (avg 65.7), direct 3.1% (avg 3.4), dealer 28.1% (avg 30.9).
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.5
Economic release
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.5, prev 8.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 7.6
Economic release
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 7.6, forecast 14.75, prev 20.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16K
Economic release
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 16K, prev 12K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (-$3.8B d/d)
Economic release
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-14: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-14: $1.4B (prior day $5.3B).
Eurozone · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 25.8
Economic release
Eurozone · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 25.8, forecast 39.9, prev 31.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.5 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 34.7
Economic release
Germany · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 34.7, forecast 37, prev 34.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · ZEW Survey – Current Situation: -47.1
Economic release
Germany · ZEW Survey – Current Situation — Actual -47.1, forecast -52.2, prev -61.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Claimant Count Rate: 4.4
Economic release
UK · Claimant Count Rate — Actual 4.4, prev 4.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): 4.9
Economic release
UK · ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) — Actual 4.9, forecast 5, prev 4.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Claimant Count Change: 28K
Economic release
UK · Claimant Count Change — Actual 28K, forecast 8K, prev -11K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Employment Change (3M): 67K
Economic release
UK · Employment Change (3M) — Actual 67K, prev 83K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.9
Economic release
UK · Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.9, forecast 3.9, prev 4.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
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