Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
2-Year Note auction: IN LINE. $69B on offer, B/C 2.66 (avg 2.59), high 4.315%, stopped through 0.5bp (avg +0.1bp), indirect 56.6% (avg 56.4), direct 34.1% (avg 30.2), dealer 9.4% (…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.58%, revised from 1.68%.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index — Actual 1.3, prev 0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-27.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.9, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 0.3, prev -4.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 0.3, forecast 1.6, prev -4.5. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.6, forecast 0.9, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-24: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-24: $0.7B (prior day $0.9B).
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 27 July 2026 — 40 scheduled US events, 7 high-impact, 10 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 12:30 UTC Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (forec…
Treasuries (close 2026-07-23): 2s 4.37% (+6.0bp), 10s 4.71% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.17% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-23): VIX 18.7, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: Oil Soars As Trump Warns Iran W…
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 82K, prev 63K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -39K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 184K, prev 187K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 450, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.8%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-24.
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.63M, forecast 0.61M, prev 0.58M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.8, forecast 54.5, prev 53.9. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 53.6, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 53.6, forecast 51, prev 51.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-23: 3.64% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-23: $0.9B (prior day $0.4B).
Treasuries (close 2026-07-22): 2s 4.31% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.15% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-22): VIX 16.64, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: Trump’s dubious nuclear deal w…
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-22: $6,747,378M, vs $6,743,028M the prior week.
10-Year Note auction: IN LINE. $21B on offer, B/C 2.30 (avg 2.47), high 2.438%, indirect 65.2% (avg 71.3), direct 25.0% (avg 17.7), dealer 9.9% (avg 11.0). IN LINE demand, no direc…
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: WEAK. $100B on offer, B/C 2.31 (avg 2.80), high 3.795% (inv 3.871%), indirect 39.7% (avg 65.8), direct 4.6% (avg 3.5), dealer 55.6% (avg 30.7). WEAK …
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $110B on offer, B/C 2.79 (avg 2.80), high 3.730% (inv 3.793%), indirect 65.5% (avg 64.2), direct 4.7% (avg 3.8), dealer 29.8% (avg 32.0). IN…
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 19. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 32.0B, forecast 29.0B, prev 41.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-23.
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 208K, prev 214K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.02, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 187K, forecast 212K, prev 208K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-22: 3.62% (prior 3.61%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-22: $0.4B (prior day $0.3B).
Treasuries (close 2026-07-21): 2s 4.26% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.63% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.13% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-21): VIX 17.05, 2s10s +37bp. Narrative: UniCredit: Has the Iran War Be…
20-Year Bond auction: IN LINE. $13B on offer, B/C 2.64 (avg 2.66), high 5.163%, tailed 0.5bp (avg -0.3bp), indirect 69.1% (avg 66.0), direct 16.2% (avg 23.9), dealer 14.7% (avg 10.…
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE. $72B on offer, B/C 2.76 (avg 2.95), high 3.845% (inv 3.949%), indirect 53.1% (avg 58.4), direct 5.6% (avg 5.1), dealer 41.3% (avg 36.4). IN…
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.01M, forecast -1.50M, prev -1.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-22.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-21: 3.61% (prior 3.57%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-21: $0.3B (prior day $0.0B).
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